Ceiling, floor for the Miami Heat: Jimmy Butler or bust
Despite missing out on Damian Lillard this offseason, the Miami Heat should remain in the thick of the Eastern Conference race this year.
Ceiling: 51-31 and another NBA title push
In many ways, Lillard landing in Milwaukee was a blessing in disguise for the Heat, who maintain the bulk of their core that has reached the NBA finals in two of the past four seasons.
Tyler Herro, who was at the forefront of the Lillard trade talks, returns to South Beach riding back-to-back 20-plus PPG campaigns. The former Sixth Man of the Year could be in line for an expanded role in 2023-24, with Miami Herald's Barry Jackson reporting that Herro could shoulder point guard duties following Gabe Vincent's departure.
Herro is fresh off a career-best 4.2 APG in 2022-23 and could see those numbers push north of 5.0 per game if tasked as a primary ball-handler.
On the wing, Losing Max Strus will open minutes for Caleb Martin to further his development. Martin averaged 19.3 PPG on 60.2% shooting in the Eastern Conference Finals.
If 20-year-old Nikola Jovic can solidify Miami's frontcourt depth behind Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Erik Spoelstra should have enough pieces to push for another title run.
Floor: 43-39 as Jimmy Butler proves not enough
While Lillard joining the Bucks kept Miami's core together, it further beefed up competition in the East. Milwaukee and the Boston Celtics are both legitimate title contenders, while the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers will be difficult playoff tests for any opponent.
Failing to land Lillard was less than ideal, but not having a backup plan in mind if the Lillard deal fell through was worse. Instead of buffing up their Eastern Conference championship roster this season, Miami let Strus and Vincent walk in the offseason, leaving an aging rotation to shoulder extensive minutes.
Butler, Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love are an average age of 35. While the former is still dominant, the latter two players shouldn't be manning consistent minutes at this point in their careers.
In recent years, Miami has wallowed in mediocrity during the regular season, relying on Butler to take his game to new heights come playoffs.
Depending on Butler to hit the switch once again will prove a tall task against the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference — all of whom improved this summer, while the Heat didn't.
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