Miami Heat 2022-23 Betting Guide
Miami is one of the toughest teams in the NBA to peg coming into the season. They had the top record in the Eastern Conference last year and bring most of their team back, but nobody really expects them to compete at that level again.
It is hard to find a glaring weakness on this team, but their strengths do not overwhelm either. They never give an inch but it is hard to be elite in the NBA that way. At least in terms of winning it all. The game has changed.
According to the odds table, this is the fourth-best team in the Eastern Conference, They are helped by playing in the worst division in the NBA so that is not an unrealistic expectation.
Here is a closer look at Miami.
Miami Heat
2021-22 Record: 53-29
2021-22 ATS Record: 46-35-1
2021-22 O/U Record: 49-33
2021-22 Year in Review
It was a good year for the Heat last season. Per the above, they had a great regular season, better than expected, and that was with none of their top four players playing more than 66 games. When healthy Jimmy Butler was a beast, and Tyler Herro also averaged more than 20ppg. However, things started to deteriorate in the playoffs as they became overly dependent on Butler.
Herro dealt with injuries in the postseason and shooter Duncan Robinson stopped being able to make shots. This was the grittiest team in the league last season, but that only takes you so far in the modern NBA. They had good depth too but the true value of that was in during the season.
2022-23 Miami Heat Futures
Southeast Division: -150
Eastern Conference: +900
NBA Title: +1800
Atlanta struggles for most of last season so the Heat were virtually unopposed last year in the division. This season the Hawks should close the gap some but Miami is still the most likely winner (there is no much value there for having your money tied up for 6 months). This is a veteran group but it looks like they are replacing the very experienced PJ Tucker, with the very inexperienced Haywood Highsmith at one forward spot. That will make them more athletic but probably not better in the short term.
Miami needs to get more out of Bam Adebayo if they are going to take their next step. His versatility is impressive but he needs to increase his ceiling on the offensive end. Relying on Butler and Kyle Lowry the way they do is dangerous because both throw their bodies into the action at a high rate. Miami is never going to get outworked but their best game is not as good as other teams in the East. This is a team that could easily drop in wins this season.
Miami Heat - Bet To Consider
Tyler Herro to win 6th Man of the Year +1700
Herro won the award last year. Unlike the MVP or even DPOY, there is not as much voter fatigue for this award, which often goes to the highest-scoring player in the league off the bench. Herro averaged more than 20ppg as a reserve last season and given the makeup of the Heat there is no reason to think his opportunity will decline, in fact, his usage has gone up all 3 years he has been in the league. There is still room to grow for him grow and no reason to make Jordan Poole +500, at the top of the odds table. That is a wide gap, with Christian Wood and Malcolm Brogdon in the middle at +1000 and +1600 respectively. Herro should be in the top two at least so there is good long-term value there.
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