One stat that might doom Nikola Jokic's MVP three-peat
Nikola Jokic might be the best offensive player in the NBA, but his lack of defensive effort might keep him from getting a third straight MVP Trophy.
On "The Lowe Post," ESPN's Zach Lowe shared a statistic that reveals Jokic's defensive effort hasn't been great this year. He's been called for a kicked ball violation a whopping 45 times in 60 games, which is almost three times as much as the next closest player.
Kicking the ball isn't all that harmful for a team's defense, since it simply results in a throw-in, but it's also a cheap, low-effort play, the recourse of a defender who can't or won't defend legally. It's a lazy way for a big man to deny a pick-and-roll.
That's the biggest knock on Jokic's MVP case. Denver had the best offense in the league most of the season, though now it's second to the Sacramento Kings. The Nuggets are 16th in defensive rating, though, and according to Lowe, their excellent offense masks the weaknesses in their defense.
"Cleaning the Glass has them 26th in points allowed per possession in transition and about that bad off of defensive rebounds and turnovers," Lowe explained.
Denver scores efficiently, which limits those transition opportunities for opponents, since the Nuggets have time to set their defense off made baskets. Scoring becomes much more difficult in the playoffs, which makes the defense far more vulnerable. The Nuggets have shown it in their three-game losing streak to three non-contenders: the Bulls, Spurs and Nets, who all targeted Jokic in the pick-and-roll.
Arguably, the Nuggets are simply cruising. They're still 4.5 games ahead of second-place Memphis, and in the fourth quarter, Denver's defensive rating goes from 16th to 10th. Kicked balls are a great symbol of effort, but they don't tell the whole story.
In a very competitive MVP race, Jokic is no longer the clear favorite ahead of Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo, both excellent defenders. Embiid's leading the league in scoring for Philadelphia's No. 3 offense, and the team is only a half-game behind the Nuggets. Antetokounmpo's Bucks have the best record in the NBA and the No. 3 defense, just 0.4 points per 100 possessions behind the top-rated Grizzlies.
It may come down to March 27, when Embiid and the 76ers visit the Nuggets in Denver. If Jokic is still kicking the ball against Embiid, voters may kick the Joker's MVP case to the curb.
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