Analyzing Murray State's Ja Morant, the No. 2 NBA Draft prospect

.Number that matters: 0.656

Despite the black mark that has been put on them by the analytics community, mid-range shots can still be a key part of an NBA player’s scoring arsenal. Due to deficits in size or athleticism, players can use mid-range shots (or even just the threat of making them) to punish defenses. That’s what makes Morant’s 0.656 points per possession on floaters and runners -- the non-jump shot, no-layup shots in the mid paint -- slightly concerning.

Morant will operate in thousands of pick-and-rolls over his career. That action, a tactical staple in the NBA, often results in point guards being pushed into spots on the floor where the return on investment on shots won’t sink a defense. Those spots are typically between five and 15 feet from the basket.  Those runners and floaters that Morant produced such a poor mark on in his 2018-19 season at Murray State tend to be the ones that 6-foot-3 point guards with wiry frames take quite often in NBA pick-and-rolls.

Without putting an emphasis on improving such shots, Morant will leave gaps in his production while also leaving himself exposed as competition tightens in the playoffs -- that's where the team drafting Morant hopes he leads it to consistently.

Number to ignore: 5.2

For players tasked with a huge creative burdens, turnovers often come with the territory. Morant is no exception. That’s why even though his 5.2 turnovers per game last season seem like an indicator of sloppy play, it’s important not to rush to conclusions.

College basketball games are 40 minutes. Morant played 36.6 of those minutes per game last season with the fate of the offense mostly in his hands. Given the outsized talent disparity between Morant and his teammates, the Racers couldn’t afford to not let their precocious star have a hand in nearly every possession.

That talent gap also reared its ugly head in other ways. Only two players on Murray State shot better than 34 percent from three in 2018-19. One of them was Morant. Passing lanes and generally larger operating spaces were sorely lacking because of the middling talent around Morant. At the NBA level, these problems should be cleaned up. So should any concerns over Morant’s outsized turnovers-per-game number.

His comps: De'Aaron Fox

At the same listed height (6-foot-3), listed weight (175 pounds) and roughly the same wingspan (6-foot-6), Fox and Morant are almost athletic twins. 

A key factor in the Sacramento Kings' surprising playoff flirtation this past year was the influence of Fox. With his speed, athleticism and blend of passing and scoring, Fox looks set to take Sacramento out of the Western Conference’s basement. In sports, you often hear the vague descriptor of “winner” attached to a player whose presence always seems attached to success. Fox is worthy of such a label.

During the 2018-19 season, Fox had the second-best plus/minus (which tracks the scoring margins of when certain players are either sitting out or playing) on the Kings' roster. Overall, the Kings outscored opponents by 1.3 points per 48 minutes (the length of an NBA game) when Fox was on the floor. When he sat, Sacramento was outscored by 5.5 points per 48. That’s means the presence of Fox was, in a simplistic sense, worth nearly seven points per game, essentially keeping the Kings from once again being one of the league’s worst teams.

It’s easy to see Morant having this same effect at the NBA level.  Thanks to Morant, the Racers went 54-11 in his two seasons and upset Marquette in the NCAA Tournament. If Morant were at Duke or Kentucky, where there is elite talent, it would be hard to dissect Morant’s effect. At Murray State, it’s a different story. Given the forgettable level of talent on the roster around him, it’s fairly obvious that Morant’s game -- like Fox’s in Sacramento -- has an uplifting effect.

Building a skill set

Morant’s passing will cover up a lot of scoring shortcomings. But for his game to rise to an elite level in the NBA, he must improve his jumper, especially off the dribble.

Morant must also get stronger. He’s a good athlete and moves well, but for the first few years, Morant’s frame will leave him open to being muscled off driving lanes and overpowered on defense. It’s not so much that Morant needs to bulk up like the Hulk -- like Steve Nash, he must become more stable from his core out.

Best-case scenario

The jumper continues to come along and his body develops. The elite passing instincts are refined and the in-between shots -- floaters and runners -- become layups. If all that comes to fruition, Morant could find himself in MVP debates.

Worst-case scenario

The jumper never morphs into something defenses respect. The resulting fallout -- defenses daring him to shoot off the catch and off the dribble -- has a trickle-down effect on the rest of his game. Driving lanes close off and help defenders stick to open teammates while offenses generally stagnate during Morant’s minutes. The floor for this is still probably somewhere along the lines of “capable backup” but not much higher than that.