The 2025 draft class is stronger at the top than 2024’s class was, according to Jonathan Givony of ESPN (Insider link), but there still isn’t a clear-cut No. 1 pick in this group like there was in 2023 with Victor Wembanyama.
Cooper Flagg has long been viewed as the best bet to be next year’s top pick, but that’s not yet a lock, Givony writes, putting the odds of the Duke forward coming off the board first at just slightly above 50%. Rutgers wing Ace Bailey is Flagg’s top competition at this point, per Givony, who has Bailey’s odds of going No. 1 at 25%. Rutgers guard Dylan Harper, Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe, and French guard Nolan Traore are also in the mix for the first overall spot, Givony adds.
“I’m going into this year with an open mind about who the No. 1 pick might be,” one NBA executive told ESPN. “This is how mistakes are made: getting anchored to an opinion and then closing yourself off to new, much more important information that we’ll be receiving in the coming months seeing how the season plays out.
“I need to see if Cooper Flagg is indeed a No. 1-type offensive option who can be expected to carry a team at some point in his career, or if he’s more of a superstar role player who is better suited as your second- or third-best player. Every year there are surprises, new players pop up and others take an unexpected leap.”
Mock drafts from last fall illustrate that potential for in-season surprises. ESPN’s November 2023 mock had Isaiah Collier first overall, Ja’Kobe Walter fourth, and Reed Sheppard 25th — they were eventually drafted 29th, 19th, and third, respectively.
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