Are the Milwaukee Bucks still championship contenders?

During the 2023 offseason, the Milwaukee Bucks acquired All-Star point guard Damian Lillard in a blockbuster three-team deal, instantly positioning them as the trendy pick to win the 2024 NBA championship. With new head coach Adrian Griffin at the helm, the Bucks started the season strong, racing to a 30-13 record.

However, in a nearly unprecedented move, Griffin was replaced midseason by veteran coach Doc Rivers. Under Rivers, the team struggled, finishing the year with a disappointing 17-19 record. Their subsequent postseason was a letdown. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the entire first-round series against the Indiana Pacers, while Lillard was sidelined for two games. Milwaukee eventually lost 4-2, ending one of the most frustrating campaigns in the NBA.

Heading into the 2024-25 season, the Bucks opted for stability, making only peripheral roster adjustments. The only notable changes include swapping starting shooting guard Malik Beasley for Gary Trent Jr and bringing in Taurean Prince to replace Jae Crowder.

With the same core group of players, Bucks fans have one question: Can Antetokounmpo, Lillard and company rebound from their disastrous 2023-24 campaign and challenge for a Finals berth in the Eastern Conference?

Offense

One reason the Bucks’ front office opted for a midseason coaching change stemmed from concerns about a disjointed offense. Management felt the team lacked a cohesive attack or clear offensive sets, relying instead on isolation plays. However, the statistics paint a different picture.

Regardless of whether Griffin or Rivers was on the bench, Lillard’s pick-and-roll averages remained similar, averaging 9.9 possessions per game- a top-6 mark in the league. His efficiency as the ball handler was as elite as ever, scoring 0.99 points per possession, which aligned precisely with the Bucks’ strategy when they traded for him. The Bucks’ roll game was also far from predictable, with Brook Lopez, Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis splitting time diving to the rim after setting screens, racking up solid numbers in the paint.

The offense often hummed, with the Bucks averaging only 8.4 isolation possessions per game, a number that sat square in the middle of all playoff teams. Fueled by Lillard’s play-making, Beasley’s sharpshooting (41.3% from three), and Antetokounmpo’s rim attacks, the Bucks’ offense finished the season ranked 6th in the NBA.

Defense

The Bucks’ struggles primarily stemmed from their porous defense. With Lillard and Beasley, two notoriously poor defenders in the backcourt, and Khris Middleton battling injuries, Milwaukee’s perimeter defense was among the league’s poorest. Their dismal 11.8% forced turnover rate, the worst in the NBA, underscored their glaring inability to force opposing teams into miscues.

Compounding the problem, Lillard and Beasley’s defensive liabilities were exposed while guarding the pick and roll. Routinely beaten off screens, they were the main reason the Bucks surrendered the second-most points per game to pick-and-roll ball handlers (19.7 PPG). Despite Lopez’s excellent rim protection — leading the league in contested shots at the rim with 722 - and Antetokounmpo’s typically excellent defense, Milwaukee couldn’t overcome its perimeter woes. The Bucks finished the season with the 19th-ranked defense overall and even with Doc Rivers at the helm, they were 17th in DFRTG throughout 27 post-All-Star game contests.

Are the Bucks still championship contenders?

The Eastern Conference is deeper than ever, with Boston keeping its championship core, the Knicks adding Mikal Bridges, the Magic bolstering their young core with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and the 76ers making the biggest splash in free agency by signing Paul George. Meanwhile, the Bucks failed to address their most glaring need: a defensive-minded wing capable of guarding the opposing team’s top scorer and disrupting pick-and-roll actions.

Perhaps Milwaukee’s front office believes Khris Middleton can regain his 2021 championship form and become a true defensive stopper once again. But after two offseason ankle surgeries and at 33 years old, expecting him to consistently lock down elite perimeter players seems unrealistic.

While it’s unwise to discount a team led by a former two-time MVP and NBA champion in Antetokounmpo, the Bucks’ defensive deficiencies remain a significant concern. Unless they address their perimeter stopping power through a midseason trade, it’s difficult to see Milwaukee advancing past the second round of the playoffs, let alone capturing another title.