Dallas Mavericks first overall pick Cooper Flagg is the overwhelming favorite to be the 2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year. FanDuel Sportsbook has him at -185, and the next closest player is +800.
ESPN 's Kevin Pelton ranked who could be the biggest threats to Flagg this season, and the answers might be a little surprising, as he listed Ace Bailey, Tre Johnson, and Kon Knueppel as the main contenders.
"Johnson, the third-leading scorer (19.5 PPG) behind Flagg and [VJ] Edgecombe in summer league," Pelton explained," could slot in immediately at shooting guard in Washington depending on how the Wizards decide to use veterans CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton. McCollum and Middleton don't seem to figure in Washington's long-term plans, and the team is short on shot creation behind them, creating opportunity for Johnson -- the top rival to Flagg."
"I would give Bailey the longest odds of this group because Utah's offense could cater to his worst instincts in terms of shot selection. Bailey shot 37% in two games with the Jazz at the Salt Lake City Summer League. Utah coach Will Hardy will undoubtedly push Bailey toward higher-value 3-point shots, but the Jazz lost two of their best shot creators in Sexton and Jordan Clarkson and are relying on recent draft picks to replace them."
"Knueppel, Flagg's teammate at Duke, might have the most ready-made opportunity to thrive. The Hornets have quality young talent in LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, who combined to play just 74 games this past season, and a glaring need for Knueppel's shooting.
"Charlotte could start newcomer Collin Sexton next to Ball in the backcourt, but Sexton figures to fit better in a reserve role. And Knueppel was more effective at Duke than the other one-and-done players in this group, which explains why he ranked No. 2 in my stats-based projections," Pelton said.
Tre Johnson has the perfect blend of opportunity and talent with the Wizards, and he was electric in the Summer League. Guards can sometimes have a hard time transitioning to the NBA, but he's going to have the ball in his hands a lot this season.
For those wondering why second and third overall picks Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe may not be considered, it's more about the teams around them than anything. If the 76ers are healthy, they have three stars in Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey, and Edgecombe will be fighting for playing time with Jared McCain and former Maverick Quentin Grimes.
Meanwhile, the Spurs have three talented guards in De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Harper, so it may be hard for Harper to put up guady numbers.
Flagg is going to have opportunity right away as arguably the second most-important player behind Anthony Davis until Kyrie Irving returns. And having an impact early in the season carries in the minds of voters throughout the season.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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