Can Jakob Poeltl regain his pre-injury form?

The following is part of Raptors Republic’s preview series for the 2026-27 series. You can find all the other pieces here.

It’s no secret that Jakob Poeltl had a very disappointing season last year, largely due to a back injury he picked up in training camp. It bothered him for the entirety of the 2025/26 season, and now, with a ton of time off in the offseason, Raptor fans can only hope that his back is much better now and that he can have a season similar to the 2024/25 campaign, where he put up 14.5 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists and just over a block and steal per game.

In 2025/26, he followed up one of the best seasons of his career with a down year, only averaging 10.7 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists and just under a steal and block per game. His games played dropped from 57 in a tanked 2024/25 season, where Poeltl probably could have played more, to just 46 in a competitive season where Toronto finished as a top-5 seed in the Eastern Conference. His minutes also dipped from 29.6 to 25 per game, with an emerging Collin Murray-Boyles who is only listed as a “6’7 center but plays much bigger than his size. He held down the center position for Toronto for the majority of Poeltl’s injury and remains the biggest threat to his minutes in this coming season, after a phenomenal rookie season in which he exceeded all expectations. Toronto also added size this offseason with Nate Bittle, an undrafted center out of Oregon who should serve as Toronto’s third-string center. If he were also to exceed expectations and Poeltl has yet another rough season, Yak could be in trouble, as Toronto doesn’t have to rely on him as the only 7-footer on the roster anymore.

That last scenario is more of a long shot in my opinion, and Poeltl will more than likely serve as the starting center for Toronto to begin the season, barring any injuries. His role will stay more or less the same: the fifth option on the offence and anchor Toronto’s painted area on the defensive end, especially now that Kawhi Leonard should be a Raptor any day now. I do expect him to have much better numbers this season and believe that he can regain the form of just two seasons ago if he can stay healthy. I don’t expect another 14.5 points per game, which was a career high, but he can definitely average more than 10.7 points per game. If he were to score more points, cool, but even if his points drop off, as long as he has a better year rebounding and protecting the paint, I would say that is an even bigger need than scoring, as Toronto only has a limited number of viable centers, especially at the 7-foot range. If Poeltl can regain his shot-blocking, a huge part of his game for his career, that would be so crucial for a Toronto defence that was one of the best in the league last season, even with his subpar play.

An improving part of Poeltl’s game has been his free throw shooting since returning to Toronto. Prior to his second stint in Toronto, Poeltl had two seasons of under 50 percent shooting from the line and his best season from the charity stripe was 59.4 percent in his sophomore season with the Raptors. Ever since his return, he hasn’t shot below 55 percent from the line yet and has put up back-to-back seasons of over 60 percent free throw percentage. If he can take another leap there, that would be huge for the Raptors as they were one of the bottom-tier teams in terms of free throw percentage last season.

Poeltl is entering his 11th season in the NBA and will turn 31 in October. He’s owed just over $100 million until the 2029-30 season, when he will be 34 years of age at that point. Many have the opinion that Poeltl has one of the worst contracts in the league, which could be true, but in today’s NBA market, a ton of players do get overpaid, and if Toronto can get a healthy Poeltl who is anchoring the paint at a great level, he could help play a big role in a season where Toronto all of a sudden look like a dark horse contender.