Determining Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Path to 2025-26 MVP

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was not a household name entering the 2024-25 season, his seventh overall and sixth with Oklahoma City. The 27-year-old has now built a Hall of Fame resume thanks to one of the most decorated single campaigns in league history.

Last October, Thunder on SI laid out Gilgeous-Alexander's road to winning regular-season MVP. He needed to improve his scoring volume and efficiency from an already sky-high floor, and most importantly, lead Oklahoma City to a better record. These have been unofficial MVP criteria since the award's inception.

Safe to say, Gilgeous-Alexander knocked those expectations out of the park.

The 6-foot-6, 200-pounder increased his points per 100 possessions from 42.4 (No. 2 among qualified players) to 45.9 (No. 1 among qualifiers). His on-court net rating, or score margin per 100 possessions, rose from +11.9 (No. 4 among qualifiers) to +16.9 (No. 1 among qualifiers). The Thunder maintained the Western Conference's No. 1 seed but won 11 more games, as Gilgeous-Alexander played 76 of 82 contests.

Gilgeous-Alexander was the 2023-24 MVP runner-up, receiving 15 first-place votes to Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic's 79. Jokic recorded more impressive counting statistics and impact metrics than Gilgeous-Alexander while leading the Nuggets to 57 wins, matching the Thunder.

Last season, despite Jokic averaging an uber-efficient triple-double, Gilgeous-Alexander's scoring consistency, on-court impact and 18 more team wins proved impossible to overcome. Oklahoma City's superstar earned 71 first-place votes to Jokic's 29 — a true two-horse race.

Gilgeous-Alexander's 2024-25 regular season matches up quite favorably among the last 10 MVP winners. Only 2022-23 Joel Embiid averaged more points per 100 possessions (47.4). Only 2015-16 Stephen Curry registered a higher on-court net rating (+18.0) and more team wins (73).

The sample averages: 42.2 points per 100 possessions, +11.3 on-court net rating and 58.9 regular-season wins.

Over the last three seasons, Gilgeous-Alexander has totaled 43.5 points per 100 possessions and a +10.8 on-court net rating in 7,567 regular-season minutes. The Thunder has averaged 55 wins in that span.

Gilgeous-Alexander, barring injury, will be a 2025-26 MVP candidate. He is the most prolific rim, mid-range and free-throw scorer at the guard position, even sprinkling in more 3-pointers on above-average efficiency last season. As a top-tier No. 1 option, he generates quality shots regardless of his best teammates being on the court. Gilgeous-Alexander's plus defense has removed any doubts about his game as he enters his prime.

However, as NBA history has revealed, there are higher standards for repeat MVP winners. Sixteen players have won two straight MVPs, with three of them securing three in a row: Boston Celtics center Bill Russell (1960-63), Philadelphia 76ers center Wilt Chamberlain (1965-68) and Celtics forward Larry Bird (1983-86).

Here are how those 16 players' second straight MVPs compared to their first:

Eight of 16 back-to-back winners, including five of seven this century, scored more points per 100 possessions for their second MVP. Since play-by-play tracking began in the 1996-97 season, five of seven back-to-back winners tallied a higher on-court net rating for their second MVP.

The largest eye-opener: Eleven of 16 back-to-back winners led their teams to better records the following season, with the sample averaging a 4.1-win improvement.

All 16 repeat winners improved in at least one of three categories. This will be difficult for Gilgeous-Alexander to match, since he has reached the mountaintop in these areas.

The reigning MVP, scoring champion and Finals MVP could repeat a similar season or regress slightly to remain in the MVP race. Jokic, Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic are Gilgeous-Alexander's stiffest competitors, as they have been for the last half-decade.

Ultimately, the Thunder matching or exceeding performance expectations would allow everything else to fall into place.