Dissecting the Boston Celtics Offensive Collapse

These late-game meltdowns from the Boston Celtics have been unparalleled in NBA history. Fans and members of the media have thrown the blame around from players to coaches to the culture. After Game 1, the Celtics had significant worries about blowing a 20-point lead to lose at home, but many thought this would be a one-time occurrence. People blamed the loss on Boston’s inefficient three-point shooting, where they missed a record 45 three-pointers, going 15-for-60. But in Game 2, the Celtics repeated themselves, shooting 10-for-40 with the same 25% efficiency.

In the fourth quarter of Game 2, the Boston Celtics had many chances to come out of their shooting slump. Al Horford had an open corner 3 that missed. Jayson Tatum caught the ball in the corner and could not convert a wide-open three, and Jaylen Brown missed another from the top of the key. If any of these shots went in, it could have swung the momentum of the game. Many pointed to Tatum’s shot, where he had an open lane to the basket, and Horford was open by the rim after Jalen Brunson fell. But none of these shots were bad; they just didn’t go in.

Shooting Variance

This leads to one of the biggest talking points among Boston Celtics fans: shooting variance. After Game 1, many believed that the performance was a worst-case scenario that statistically could not happen again. But it happened in the very next game, and not just with three-pointers, with everything. The Celtics had similar shooting struggles back in December and January. Many brushed it off then, but it is coming back to bite them now.

The Boston Celtics are an organization that follows analytics, and analytics say that if a player is a 40% three-point shooter, then their shooting will eventually level out after an off night. This is not always the case. Shooting the basketball is not a math equation where, if you are a 40% shooter, you are guaranteed to make at least 4 out of 10 attempts.

It takes skill to make a shot, and until a player proves that they can, it is not a guarantee for them to rebound. If a team shoots 25% from three for a consistent stretch of games, it is no longer a cold streak; it is simply who they are. To be an elite shooting team, the team needs to shoot the ball well. Variance cannot be turned over and over when the team is not shooting the favored percentages. It cannot be assumed that they will instantly level out; they need to physically prove it themselves.

Final Thoughts

These losses were not entirely due to poor shooting. On multiple occasions, the Boston Celtics gave up runs and allowed New York to chip away. Tatum and Brown struggled down the stretch, and Game 2 was one of Tatum’s worst playoff performances in his career. Joe Mazzulla has been outcoached, and the Knicks have consistently shown more grit and heart in the clutch. Thus far, this series has been a complete meltdown where all the Boston Celtics’ problems have reared their heads at once.