Do the Sacramento Kings Want to Keep Their 2025 First-Round Draft Pick?

Or so we thought. Since then, a series of puzzling moves - both on and off the court - have resulted in the Kings once again finding themselves in the abyss of NBA mediocrity. Just good enough to be in playoff/play-in contention, but not good enough to make any noise in the postseason. Just bad enough to be in the draft lottery, but not bad enough to have good odds at receiving a top pick.

In July of 2022, the Kings acquired Kevin Huerter from the Atlanta Hawks for Justin Holiday, Moe Harkless, and the Kings’ 2025 first-round draft pick. The pick was sent to Atlanta with protection: lottery protection in 2024, top-12 protection in 2025, and top-10 protection in 2026. 

In other words, if the pick falls in those ranges in each season, the Kings keep the pick. If the pick falls outside of the specified range for any of the above seasons, the pick will be conveyed to Atlanta. If the pick does not convey in 2026, it is considered unprotected and automatically conveys to the Hawks for 2027.

The Sacramento Kings currently have the 13th-worst record in the NBA. If the Kings make the Play-In Tournament and advance to the playoffs, their draft pick will fall outside of the top 12 and will convey to Atlanta. Even if the Kings make the Play-In but do not advance, it is more likely than not that the pick will go to Atlanta. 

In this scenario, the Kings would have either the 13th or 14th-worst record in the league. At that point, ping-pong balls at the draft lottery would determine the fate of the draft pick, but Atlanta would have over a 95% chance of receiving the pick.

If the Kings slip further down the standings and miss the Play-In altogether, their draft pick will *likely* remain with Sacramento. Again, we would have to wait until the draft lottery to find out for certain, but the odds of the Kings keeping the pick would be very high.

Should the Kings be trying to make the playoffs, or would they be better off missing out and increasing their odds of retaining their 2025 first-round draft pick? There are benefits, risks, and drawbacks to both sides, of course. It is also important to reiterate that missing the Play-In Tournament this season does not automatically ensure that the Kings retain the pick.

Losing the pick and sending it to Atlanta has benefits. It means that the Kings were good enough to at least remain in contention for the postseason down to the end, if not make the Play-In outright. If they are able to advance to the playoffs, that would be an incredible step in the right direction. 

Making this type of run could prove vital in the team’s pitch to Domantas Sabonis in the offseason. With Sabonis weighing his options for the next few years of his career, he will certainly be looking at the Kings’ trajectory and wondering if the team is on the winning path he seeks. Fighting until the end and being good enough to lose the pick could be the best thing for Sacramento’s chances of retaining their three-time All-Star center.

On the other hand, this may not be enough to compel Sabonis to stay. The Kings will have missed out on the potential to draft a young player to replace him or bolster the roster elsewhere. A late-lottery draft pick in a draft that is widely considered to be top-heavy may not be the most valuable asset imaginable, but it’s not nothing. 

Occasionally, players picked at No.12 in the draft have turned into very good players, most recently the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Jalen Williams, drafted No.12 in 2022. Kings fans will, of course, remember that Tyrese Haliburton, now playing for the Indiana Pacers after being traded for Sabonis in 2022, was also drafted in the twelfth spot in 2020.

If the Kings continue to slide and miss the Play-In, and thereby retain their draft pick, they will have the flexibility to either use the pick or package it with a player (or players) to make a trade to improve the team. Either way, having the pick allows for more pathways to getting better in the offseason, which can only be considered a good thing. 

That is, unless this is the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back, and Domantas Sabonis decides he’s had enough.

Assuming this happens, Kings fans may wonder if the current ownership and front office team are the right people to execute the offseason plan. Firing former head coach Mike Brown less than halfway into this season and then trading star point guard De’Aaron Fox to the San Antonio Spurs in February were both moves aimed at “winning now”, according to team brass. 

Suffice it to say that the jury is still out on whether either of those moves made the Kings better in the long run, but we can say definitively that neither move put the Kings in a better position to win now. 

One also needs to look critically at the current leadership’s ability to extract maximum value from the No.12 pick, should the Kings keep it. Since Monte McNair was hired to be the General Manager in 2020, the Kings have made a couple of excellent draft picks. As mentioned above, the team drafted Tyrese Haliburton at No.12 in 2020 and Keegan Murray at No.4 in 2022. 

However, Sacramento also drafted Davion Mitchell with the ninth pick in 2021. This was far higher than Mitchell had been projected, leading many to question whether the Kings had reached too far to draft a player who didn’t necessarily fit with the current players in the first place. 

Mitchell was a good player and has made a name for himself as an excellent defender, but the Kings ended up trading Mitchell to Toronto last June, mostly in an effort to remain under the luxury tax threshold. 

Critics wondered whether the Kings made a significant reach in the 2024 draft as well when they selected Devin Carter with the No.13 pick in the draft. Carter has played well at times, and also started the season with a shoulder injury that required surgery, so we shouldn’t be too hasty and declare Carter a bust by any means. 

However, drafting a player at No.13 that many experts projected to be drafted in the second round does open the Kings’ front office up to some deserved criticism. Converting lower-lottery and mid-first round draft picks into solid rotation players (at minimum) is something that good teams are able to do, and represents the difference between where the Kings are now and where they want to go.

It remains to be seen whether the Kings will get the opportunity to make a first-round draft pick this year. It also remains to be seen whether the current front office will be around to make that pick if they do. Either way, there are no quick fixes to the current state of the team, and all potential avenues of improving have their respective pros and cons. Unfortunately for the Kings and their fans, there are no easy answers.

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