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Don’t Be Shocked if Jaylen Brown Wins MVP

Originally posted on The Lead | By Keith Savage | Last updated Jan 12, 2026 7:58 PM ET

Jaylen Brown has silenced numerous critics this season.

The Boston Celtics were expected to finish around .500 after losing Jayson Tatum to an Achilles tear, along with Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday and Al Horford departing in the summer.

Now, as the campaign is nearly halfway through, the Celtics hold a 24-13 record, just four games away from the top seed of the Eastern Conference.

The biggest reason Boston has been successful is Brown.

Brown Having a Career Season

The four-time All-Star is averaging a career-high 29.5 points (50% FG, 38% 3PT, 78% FT), with 6.4 rebounds and 5.0 assists over 34.3 minutes per game.

Brown has increased his point total by over seven points since last season.

To add, this is the first time in the 29-year-old’s 10-year career that he has not had an active All-Star teammate.

With his accomplishments, the 2024 NBA Finals MVP is solidifying his position in the regular-season MVP race.

MVP Threats?

In the NBA’s most recent MVP ladder, Brown was ranked third behind Nikola Jokic and reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Celtics star may only have to worry about SGA and Luka Doncic in this race due to having to play a minimum of 65 games to win the award.

Doncic has already missed seven of the Lakers’ 36 games— a minor injury could prevent the Slovenian from qualifying.

Gilgeous-Alexander, on the other hand, has played in nearly every single one of the Thunder’s games, but being the reigning MVP could hurt his case.

Giannis was asked about the 65-game rule for regular-season awards:

"I'll be honest with you. Through 13 years of being in the league I think I've played 65 games every year. I'm still going to try. I think I'm still going to play 65 games, but it's hard. If you want to be a… pic.twitter.com/GV9NQdFThe

— Bucks Lead (@BucksLead) January 10, 2026

Jokic is expected to miss roughly three more weeks due to hyperextending his left knee.

If the Nuggets decide to bring back the big man in late January, Jokic would have to play nearly every game for the rest of the year to qualify for his fourth MVP.

Just in: Denver Nuggets' Nikola Jokic has been diagnosed with a hyperextension in his left knee and will miss at least four weeks. An immense sigh of relief as tests show the three-time NBA MVP's knee ligaments are intact. pic.twitter.com/u8qLE0GDd3

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) December 30, 2025

Voter Fatigue favors JB

In the past, MVP voters have shown to have what many call ‘voter fatigue’.

It has happened multiple times in recent seasons where the runner-up of the award is also the reigning MVP and many argue that the player should have won it back-to-back years.

Jokic was a victim of it against Joel Embiid in 2023; Stephen Curry and LeBron James had similar treatments in the 2010s. Giannis got it after winning back-to-back in 2019 and 2020.

If it does come down to Brown and Gilgeous-Alexander, then the Celtics star will need to lead the team to one of the top seeds in the Eastern Conference.

Outside of Russell Westbrook in 2017 and Jokic in 2022, the award winner has always been one of the top seeds in their conference.

Jokic and Westbrook can be considered exceptions due to averaging a triple-double or coming close to one.

What is Required

Outside of an SGA injury, it’s basically two things Brown would need to do to win the MVP trophy.

The Thunder slow down in the second half of the season and have a similar record to the rest of the Western Conference.
The Celtics finish as a top-three seed in the Eastern Conference.

Jaylen Brown will need nearly everything to go perfectly to be named the 2025-26 MVP and be the oldest player to win the award for the first time since Kobe Bryant in 2008.