Don’t sleep on the Toronto Raptors

Minutes	NetRtg	OffRtg	DefRtg	2pt FG%	3pt FG%	Opp 2pt FG%	Opp 3pt FG%
374	3.88	116.35	112.47	51.23%	42.32%	53.35%	39.27%

Clearer Roles, A Pecking Order, and Improved Efficiency

As mentioned above, the addition of Ingram — a true number-one option — changes so much for this team. No longer will Barnes need to have so many on-ball reps. While he can be successful with the ball in his hands, the best version of Barnes will be as an off-ball cutter, screener, and playmaker. 

Similarly to when Barnes played with Pascal Siakam, Ingram will draw the best wing defender every night. Meaning Barnes will often have mismatches that he can exploit, whether it’s a smaller wing that he can post up, or a big that he can blow by on cuts and drives. His counting stats may not change much, but he will find it easier to get baskets than last year which should lead to a more refined, efficient version of Scottie Barnes. 

The biggest beneficiary of the Ingram acquisition should be Quickley. In 2023 the Raptors made a big swing on Quickley, hoping that he could be their point guard of the future. That offseason, the Raptors doubled down on this move by signing him to a 5 year $175 million extension. The problem? Quickley hasn’t established himself as a lead guard who can organize the offence while finding his own way into the flow.

With Ingram, there are enough playmakers on the court that Quickley will be able to play off the ball, deploying his threat as a shooter to draw defenders away from the middle of the court. He can use that threat to attack closeouts, drawing in the defense, and finishing at the rim or kicking it out to open shooters. 

Everyone will have refined roles this year, and that makes a tangible difference in what we will see from the Raptors. Everything should feel more cohesive and there will be fewer questions about who is supposed to be doing what at any given time. 

Bench Mob 2.0

With the starting lineup well established, one of the questions will be: How does everyone else fit in? 

Rajakovic has emphasized aggressive defense as the hallmark of this Raptors team, and the personnel on the bench largely reflects that. In Summer League this year, the Raptors forced 27.2 turnovers per game, which is a ridiculous number. With much of the bench rotation playing on that Summer League roster, explosive defense will be the primary identity of this bench unit.

There are also contract situations to consider with Gradey Dick and Ochai Agbaji both eligible to sign extensions. The Raptors will want to figure out where they fit into the team and how much they are worth. The rotation has the potential to be very deep this year, and Rajakovic will be able to make changes depending on who has it going on any given night. To start the season, I would project that the bench looks something like this:

PG: Jamal Shead 

SG: Gradey Dick

SF: Ochai Agbaji

PF: Colin Murray-Boyles

C: Sandro Mamukelashvili

Then there are still Ja’Kobe Walter, Jonathan Mogbo, and Jamison Battle to consider. Walter was solid last season, but the Raptors have to figure out how Dick fits on this roster, and his shooting is a huge asset on a team deprived of spacing. Mogbo and Battle may spend additional time with the 905 this year; with a team trying to compete, minutes will come at a premium.

The bench rotation will be very fluid as the season progresses, and it’s nice to know that the Raptors have additional personnel ready to step up in case of injury. It’s a very fun, scrappy, young group that has drawn comparisons to the Bench Mob of 2017. We’ll see if they can live up to it.

Development vs. Competition

The mindset around this season is very different from last year. Even though the Raptors were fairly healthy heading into the season, there were not the same expectations. This year, there is an anticipation that this team will compete for a playoff spot. Last season the goal for the team quickly shifted to development and focusing on the draft. In particular, Barnes was afforded the opportunity to work on things that weren’t typically part of his repertoire.

At the end of October, Scottie suffered an orbital fracture and missed 11 games early in the season. Upon his return, there was a clear goal to develop his 3-point shot, as he was shooting 44 percent of his shots from beyond the arc in his first 10 games back. Compare that to his last 10 games of the season, where he only shot 23.9 percent of his shots from 3. In the latter half of the season, he was focused on developing a go-to shot, and he found it in a mid-range turnaround jumper. This is a more reasonable split for Scottie, and likely closer to where he will end up this season. Though he has depended on his pull-up jumper extensively in preseason to this point, expect his shot diet to return to more drives, more layups, more cuts, and fewer triples this season.

Importance of stretching the defense

A clear area of struggle for Toronto was year was its 3-point shooting. It wasn’t only their 3-point efficiency, but also their 3-point frequency and location. Last season, Toronto ranked 29th in overall 3-point frequency, but here’s the thing: Toronto was 14th in corner three point frequency, but 30th in above-the-break (ATB) frequency, shooting only 23.5 percent of their total shot attempts from that area (league average was 28.6 percent, with the highest teams reaching above 30 percent). 

The reason this matters so much is because the ability to shoot ATB 3s— or at least the willingness to shoot them — drags defenders out from the rim and forces them to spread further out. If a team is unable or unwilling to shoot those shots, it makes a half-court possession so much easier to guard as defenders can come closer together, allowing rotations and help defense to arrive more quickly.

Players like Ingram, Quickley, and Mamukelashvili will make a huge difference in increasing that frequency and drawing defenders into more complex and vulnerable areas of the floor.

Ingram was shooting 39 percent from above the break in his limited games last year, and his ability to break defenders down and draw them into the middle of the court will allow the others to get more open looks from ATB.

Quickley’s ability to spread the floor is the primary reason why he was brought to the Raptors. Last season 41 percent of his total shots came from ATB, and he made 38 percent of them. He needs to be guarded out there, and his ability to knock them down will allow him to attack closeouts, collapse the defense and make plays from the paint. His health alone will change the geometry of the court for Toronto.

Mamukelashvili and Poeltl are polar opposites when it comes to playstyle. Poeltl plays close to the rim, setting screens and rolling hard to the basket, whereas Mamukelashvilisets screens and is far more likely to fade out to the 3-point line. This forces defenders to make a choice on guarding him or stopping the drive, as Mamukelashvili knocked down 38 percent of his ATB threes last season. 

Don’t sleep on Toronto

Be warned if you doubt Toronto this year, as behind the defence in the second half of last season, they have momentum heading into the season and a chip on their shoulders. That isn’t to say they’re going to win a championship this year; they’re still far from that. But injuries to Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton, Darius Garland, Tyler Herro, Joel Embiid, and Paul George have left the Eastern Conference vulnerable. Toronto is much more talented than last season, and the additions of Ingram, Murray-Boyles, and Mamukelashvili have added depth and versatility. If Toronto can stay healthy this year, Rajakovic has developed the framework of an efficient offense, and Toronto’s defense was starting to click. It’s as good of a time as ever for a team to make a big jump, so why not Toronto?