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Mar 14, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) brings the ball up the court against the LA Clippers during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Eastern Conference Contenders? Hawks Receive Updated Win-Loss Projection From ESPN

Originally posted on Atlanta Hawks on SI
By Jackson Caudell | Last updated Aug 31, 2025 11:44 AM ET

If you are an Atlanta Hawks fan, hearing so much positive talk about your team might make you nervous.

The Hawks are not usually the team that is lauded for their offseason work, but you won't find many around the league that don't think Atlanta hit a home run this summer.

Things got started with the big three-team trade that landed the Hawks Kristaps Porzingis and they continued into the actual free agent period. Atlanta signed arguably the top free agent on the market when they inked former Timberwolves guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker to a four-year $62 million deal and then free agent sharpshooter Luke Kennard signed a one-year 11$ million deal.

The biggest move for the Hawks, though, was on draft night. After trading the No. 22 pick to the Nets in the Kristaps Porzingis trade, Atlanta was left with the No. 13 pick in the draft. The Hawks were able to move back from 13 to 23 in a trade with the New Orleans Pelicans, and in return, the Hawks got an unprotected 2026 first-round pick that will be the most favorable of New Orleans or Milwaukee. There is a chance that the pick ends up being a top-five or higher selection. It was a stunning trade that left the NBA world speechless and the Hawks in a great position moving forward, regardless of what happens next season.

But let's talk about next season.

Contenders?

With the new additions to the roster, as well as injuries to stars like Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton, there is an open window for the Hawks to not only be a playoff team, but to contend for the Eastern Conference.

In an updated win-loss projection from ESPN, Atlanta is predicted to go 47-35, which is good for fourth in the East behind Cleveland, New York, and Orlando.

"But when people refer to the East as "wide open" -- a sentiment assuredly going to be heard throughout the next few months -- it's coded language for no confidence in the Cavs. It's not unreasonable; they have underwhelmed in the playoffs in consecutive seasons, and their core remains largely the same, even if injuries played a role both times.

This is reflected in our projections; the Cavs sit at the top, but it's more a matter of default than demand. In fact, generally, there is not much confidence in the relative strength of the East at all. Only three East teams are projected to win more than 47 games. This feels impossible, since last season there were five that finished above that mark, but especially because, inherently, the elite East teams will end up with the easiest schedules.

But the Cavs, Knicks and Magic all have flaws and fragility. There is a definite window for a team like Orlando, fresh off the aggressive move to add Desmond Bane, to gain on the top teams. The same could be said for the Hawks after their own aggressive move to pluck Kristaps Porzingis off the Celtics and add Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The panel sees both making a move in the East but not yet overtaking the top teams."

How close are the Hawks to the top?

It is fair to expect the Cavaliers and the Knicks to be at the top of the conference given that they return the majority of their cores from last season. However, Cleveland has lost in the second round of the playoffs in three straight seasons and the Hawks have matched up well with the Knicks in the past. While New York has better recent history when it comes to postseason success, they are not invincible.

Atlanta has to go out and earn it though. They have two players (Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis) who are injured often and there is not guarantee that young players like Zaccharie Risacher and Dyson Daniels will improve on last year. If these two question marks end up not being a concern, watch out.