Feb 12, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14), guard Davion Mitchell (45), forward Andrew Wiggins (22) and center Bam Adebayo (13) high five after a play against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

ESPN Analysts Take Shocking Stance On Miami Heat's Projected Win Total

Originally posted on Miami Heat on SI | By Alex Toledo | Last updated Jul 30, 2025 7:43 AM ET

After a pleasantly surprising summer, the tide of opinions seems to be shifting on the Miami Heat. All three co-hosts of ESPN's The Hoop Collective podcast agreed that the projected win total for the Heat was too low, going with the over on 37.5 wins for the 2025-2026 season.

"I don't like betting on the Heat to be a losing team. I know they were last year. I think Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Norm Powell in the Eastern Conference, they won't have the Jimmy saga unfolding and sucking the soul out of the team for the first half of the season," Tim McMahon said. "Obviously I don't have to talk about [Erik Spoelstra's] credentials as a head coach. I'm going to take the over here."

Tim MacMahon, Brian Windhorst, and Tim Bontemps are taking the OVER on 37 wins for the Miami HEAT:

MacMahon: "I don't like betting on the HEAT to be a losing team... I think Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Norm Powell in the Eastern Conference. They won’t have the Jimmy saga… pic.twitter.com/EvoghVN7qw
— Heat Diehards (@HeatDiehards) July 29, 2025

The Heat finished the season with a 37-45 record, getting historically swept by the first-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers after being the first tenth seed in history to make the Playoffs.

"My best bet on the entire board. Taking over on the 37.5. The Heat last year had the fifth most clutch games in the league. 42 of them. They went 14-28. They're not going to do that again, and while doing that they won 37 games. So in non-clutch games they were 23-17. They're going to be better than 37 wins. And like you said big man Bam Adebayo had a bad year last year. He will be better," Tim Bontemps said. "They had the Jimmy thing hanging over him for half the year. I suspect they're going to be decently better this year especially because, again, like the Pacers they're going to be trying to win games in the East. And they're they're going to be a lot of games to win. So I think that number is too low."

This summer, they swapped out Kyle Anderson and Kevin Love for Powell, Duncan Robinson for Simone Fontecchio, drafted Kasparas Jakučionis with the No. 20 pick and re-signed Davion Mitchell.

"I agree, I think they're going to try to win," Brian Windhorst said. "They may improve during the year I'm going over."