ESPN BPI Predicts Winner of NBA Finals After Round 1

The 2025 NBA Playoffs have reached the conference semifinals. In the East, all four higher seeds advanced past Round 1. In the West, the No. 6 Timberwolves upset the No. 3 Lakers in five games, and the No. 7 Warriors knocked out the No. 2 Rockets in seven.

Now, the second-round matchups are set: Cavaliers vs. Pacers, Knicks vs. Celtics, Thunder vs. Nuggets, and Timberwolves vs. Warriors.

While the Cavaliers and Pacers opened their series Sunday night, with Indiana stealing Game 1 on the road, 121–112, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) was updated. The BPI estimates each team’s chances of winning based on past performance and strength of schedule.

Heading into Monday night’s Game 1 matchups between the Knicks and Celtics, and the Nuggets and Thunder, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) provided updated odds for each team to win the NBA title.

Leading the way were the Thunder with a 62.2% chance. That comes as no surprise given Oklahoma City had the league’s best regular-season record at 68–14 and swept the Grizzlies in the first round. They’re also led by MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 32.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.4 assists during the season.