ESPN’s 2026 NBA Champion Prediction Doesn’t Match Recent History

ESPN Predict Thunder Will Change Recent NBA Championship Trend

According to ESPN’s forecast, the Thunder are favorites to repeat as champions in 2026, a scenario that would mark the end of the NBA’s streak of seven straight seasons with different title winners. Their confidence stems from the natural progression of Oklahoma City’s young core, built around reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is just entering his prime at 27 years old.

With last season’s playoff experience under their belt, the Thunder are projected to be even more dangerous.

Still, the path won’t be easy. The Denver Nuggets loom as the most immediate threat after pushing Oklahoma City to seven games in the Western Conference semifinals. Nikola Jokic now has arguably the deepest supporting cast of his career following offseason moves designed to strengthen Denver’s rotation.

In the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers are looking to break through after a 64-win regular season ended with a second-round exit. Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets have vaulted into contention by acquiring future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant, giving them a proven star alongside their rapidly improving young roster.

If Oklahoma City were to pull it off, it would mark a rare repeat in modern NBA history and signal a shift away from the balance of power that has defined the last decade.

Here’s a look back at the past seven NBA Finals winners:

• 2019: Toronto Raptors defeated Golden State Warriors, 4-2
• 2020: Los Angeles Lakers defeated Miami Heat, 4-2
• 2021: Milwaukee Bucks defeated Phoenix Suns, 4-2
• 2022: Golden State Warriors defeated Boston Celtics, 4-2 
• 2023: Denver Nuggets defeated Miami Heat, 4-1 
• 2024: Boston Celtics defeated Dallas Mavericks, 4-1
• 2025: Oklahoma City Thunder defeated Indiana Pacers, 4-3

The Rarity of Repeat Champions in Modern NBA History

The NBA hasn’t seen a repeat champion since the Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant-led Golden State Warriors won back-to-back titles in 2017 and 2018. Before that, the Miami Heat accomplished the feat in 2012 and 2013 behind LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh.

In the years since, the league has seen four Western and three Eastern Conference teams crowned NBA champions. If the Thunder defend their crown in 2026, it would mark a break from that cycle and restore a level of dominance not seen in years.