Examining the non-lottery upperclassmen in the NBA Draft

Throughout the pre-draft process, we have hit on most of the players who are in consideration to go in the lottery. We have touched on some of the elite younger prospects who played college basketball, as well as prospects who have played in the G League or overseas. However, we’re inevitably going to hear the names of some of the best upperclassmen from college basketball called at some point. And there are quite a few of them that have the potential to be first-round picks. With that in mind, keep reading for a quick look at some of the best older prospects in the 2024 NBA Draft. 

Tyler Kolek (6-foot-2, guard, Marquette)

Last season, Kolek averaged 15.3 points, 7.7 assists, 4.9 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game while shooting 49.6% from the floor, 38.8% from three and 85.1% from the line. Kolek was also in the 95th percentile in points per possession (1.234) on spot-up opportunities, and one of the very best floor generals in the nation. There simply aren’t many players in the world who possess Kolek’s court vision and overall basketball IQ. That’s why many view him as an absolute lock to be a good backup point guard in the NBA. He’s going to be an effective pick-and-roll playmaker and defenses can’t leave him open.

The issue with Kolek is that he’s small and doesn’t have a drop of athleticism. That could make him a target on the defensive end. It’s also unclear whether or not he has the speed required to create offense for himself. So, while Kolek has a tremendously high floor, he might lack upside. But there are teams that are in desperate need of what he currently brings to the table, with the Phoenix Suns being heavily linked to the 23-year-old. Also, we have seen some guys significantly outperform their tools in recent years, with Jalen Brunson being one of them. Kolek isn’t the type of player you want to bet against.

Jaylon Tyson (6-foot-6, wing, California)

Tyson is one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft. The 21-year-old was a 3-and-D player for Texas Tech two years ago, when he shot 40.2% from deep and wasn’t a big part of the offense. Then, Tyson transferred to California, where he became a high-usage creator and showed off some real feel for setting up others. In fact, the Golden Bears scored 0.951 points per possession with Tyson as a pick-and-roll ball handler, which put him in the 83rd percentile and earned him an “excellent” classification. Now, Tyson looks the part of a future fourth or fifth starter, capable of knocking down open threes and also running some offense.

Tyson just needs to prove that he can lock in on the defensive end. He was a trustworthy defensive option with the Red Raiders, but his play on that end of the floor was disappointing in Berkeley. But it’s probably best not to overthink that. The Golden Bears were just 13-19 and were outside of the top 100 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. Perhaps the environment around him led to a slight dip in overall edge. At the very least, he has decent size and shouldn’t kill his next team defensively.

Terrence Shannon Jr. (6-foot-7, wing, Illinois)

Shannon is currently on the first-round bubble, but maybe he would have had a secure spot if not for a rape charge. But Shannon was found not guilty and it seems as though it might have been a case of mistaken identity. Now, the highly talented wing can put that saga behind him and focus on basketball. And he actually did a pretty good job of that during his senior season, as he averaged 23.0 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the floor, 36.2% shooting from three and 80.1% shooting from the free throw line.

Shannon is an incredibly explosive wing, making him a blur in transition and a guy who can ferociously attack closeouts. He’s also an improving three-point shooter and a solid defensive player. All of those things should make Shannon a dangerous player in the right situation. However, Shannon does lack polish and can occasionally make some boneheaded plays. A lot of people have compared him to Kelly Oubre Jr., which almost seems too easy because they’re both lefty wings. But it actually checks out and would be a good outcome for Shannon.

DaRon Holmes II (6-foot-10, big, Dayton) 

Holmes averaged 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.1 blocks per game last season. He also shot 38.6% from three on 2.5 attempts per game. The jumper was one of the things NBA teams wanted to see Holmes work on after the 2022-23 season. Well, he wasn’t just a serviceable shooter during his junior year. He was downright lethal when left open. Now, Holmes is a big man who can score around the basket, whether it’s as a pick-and-roll finisher or a bully-ball post-up option. He can also pass rather well for a big and the jumper makes him a legitimate pick-and-pop threat.

The issue with Holmes is that he’s severely undersized for a center. That’s going to make it hard for him to hold his own on the glass and he’s going to have a lot of trouble defending some of the league’s best interior scorers. Holmes is also a little too slow to cover bigger wings, so playing the power forward spot probably isn’t an option – unless it’s against a team that plays two bigs at once. So, Holmes might not be a long-term starter in the NBA. However, his skill set should make him a good rotation player. And he might be able to play big minutes in certain matchups. 

Baylor Scheierman (6-foot-7, wing, Creighton)

Scheierman is one of the best three-point shooters in this draft. The lefty shot 38.1% from deep in his final season at Creighton and he did it on 8.3 attempts per game. That’s insane volume and Scheierman should be a gunner in the NBA, at the very least. But Scheierman is also a very good play-maker, as evidenced by the 3.9 assists per game he averaged last season. And a lot of that has to do with him having had a significant on-ball role with South Dakota State, which is where he played before transferring. Scheierman is also a very good rebounder for a player his size.

With Scheierman, the defense is the biggest concern. He’s extremely slow in the foot and will likely struggle as an on-ball defender. And teams can probably find success in targeting him off the ball by simply running him through a bunch of actions. So, the offense is going to need to be good enough to make up for all of that. Luckily, there are a lot of NBA teams that can make great use out of a movement shooter like Scheierman. So, he should be just fine.