The 2025 NBA Finals are set, and ESPN Analytics is already playing favorites in a big way. According to their model, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a commanding 75 percent chance of winning the championship against the Indiana Pacers.
Naturally, NBA fans had a lot to say. Mixing sarcasm, disbelief, and playoff wariness, they questioned whether the numbers truly reflect what is about to unfold on the court.
“ESPN is at it again with these odds
,” one user tweeted. Another joked, “Basically saying Thunder in 3.” Others questioned the numbers, saying “Feel like those odds are too high,” and another referred to the already eliminated teams, “They did the same for New York and Boston too. When would they learn?”
The Thunder may be young, but they have looked unstoppable this season.
They finished with a league-best 68–14 record and the highest point differential in NBA history at plus 12.87. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was named MVP after averaging 32.7 points per game, with help from a deep supporting cast including Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein. In the playoffs, they swept Memphis, outlasted the defending champs Denver in seven games, and eliminated Minnesota in five.
On the other side, the Pacers are no fluke.
After a shaky start to the season, they caught fire behind All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton and 2024 midseason acquisition Pascal Siakam. They stunned Milwaukee in five games, took down top-seeded Cleveland in five, and overcame the New York Knicks in six. Haliburton’s 32-point, 15-assist, zero-turnover performance in Game 4 against New York has already become playoff legend.
The Thunder won both regular-season matchups, including a 132–111 blowout in March. But Indiana has consistently proven doubters wrong. If you have been watching this team all postseason, you know better than to count them out.
Still, ESPN’s prediction feels familiar to fans who have seen analytics miss the mark before. Whether it was overestimating the Celtics or underrating the Heat, these bold calls are now part of Finals season tradition.
Game 1 tips off on June 5 in Oklahoma City, where the Thunder are favored by 9.5 points. But if the Pacers’ playoff run has shown anything, it is this: ignore them at your own risk.
Sure, ESPN might say the Thunder will win, but the Pacers just might write their own ending.
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