Five reasons the Thunder will win the NBA title

The Oklahoma City Thunder are one step away from winning a championship. They will face the Indiana Pacers in game Game 7 of the NBA Finals on Sunday.

To this point, both the Thunder and Pacers have been evenly matched. Neither side has shown a willingness to back down. However, Sunday's pressure-cooker environment will define how we remember the 2025 NBA champion.

Oklahoma entered this series as the heavy favorite. Here are five reasons why the Thunder will wake up on Monday having made history. 

5. Homecourt advantage

The Thunder finished the regular season as the top-seeded team in the Western Conference. They had a 68-14 record, winning 82.9% of their games. That hard work has now paid off, as the Thunder head into the biggest closeout game in the franchise's history in front of a hometown crowd.

By being on their home court, the Thunder have slightly less pressure on their shoulders. The fan base will create a hostile atmosphere, and the Pacers will fight with their backs against the wall. Over 48 minutes, that advantage could wear Indiana down. 

4. Defensive upside  

Oklahoma finished the regular season as the league leader in defensive rating. Head coach Mark Daigneault's team held opponents to just 106.6 points per 100 possessions. That defense-first mindset has translated to the playoffs, too. 

The Thunder are first in the postseason for defensive rating, performing slightly better by holding opponents to 106 points per 100 possessions. Oklahoma is consistent. If it locks in on the defensive side of the floor, the Pacers could be in for an incredibly long night. 

3. The math is on their side

The Thunder secured a Game 5 win over the Pacers. And with that victory, the stars aligned for the franchise. Teams that have taken a series lead in Game 5 have progressed to win a championship 75% of the time. 

Oklahoma will like those odds. It will be overflowing with confidence as it's introduced to the crowd on Sunday. 

2. Attacking mistakes

The Pacers are averaging 17.3 turnovers per game in the NBA Finals, which is 2.6 turnovers more than Oklahoma. The Thunder have the defensive talent to force Indiana into mistakes and the offensive skill to punish them as they occur. 

If Oklahoma can find scoring opportunities out of Indiana's blunders, it could create enough of a gap to give itself a cushion down the stretch. NBA championships are often won in the margins, and that's exactly what could happen here, too. 

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 

You have the advantage when you have the best player in a series. Gilgeous-Alexander is fresh off winning his first MVP award. He's undoubtedly the most skilled player in the series. If he can take his game to its top level on Sunday, the Thunder will have a significant advantage. 

After all, Gilgeous-Alexander is borderline unguardable when he's fully locked in. And there's no better time to prove you're credentials as a world-class talent than in Game 7 of the NBA Finals.