How Clippers can stunt Nikola Jokic, Nuggets in playoff matchup

Nikola Jokic will get his. He always gets his. 

The three-time MVP is as close to inevitable as we have in today’s NBA. However, the Los Angeles Clippers are uniquely positioned to not only slow Jokic but also almost completely stall the Denver Nuggets in their playoff matchup. Ranked 5th in defensive efficiency per Basketball Reference, the Clippers have a bevy of high-level defenders.

Schematically, they guard the preeminent NBA offensive set, the high pick-and-roll, differently than most teams. The majority of defenses prefer to ice a screen. 

Instead, head coach Tyronn Lue usually has his team his team send the ball handler middle, into what this writer calls a stack/drop alignment, where both the screeners man and the weakside wing defender stack at the nail, forcing the ball handler to attack two defenders, which usually allows the screened defender to recover either over the screen or following the screeners dive action. The wing defender is generally hedging, ready to help on the drive, but playing splitline defense to help prevent an open wing three.

The intention of this is to create a series of poor options for the driver. He can attack the big with an extra body shading towards him; he can kick to the weakside wing (where teams usually station their weaker shooters) or he can pull up for a mid-range jumper/floater, the exact shot that many teams look to avoid.

No defense in the modern, offensively elite NBA can take everything away; defense remains a fun game of ‘pick your poison.’ The Clippers prefer to play the math, taking away shots at the hoop and pulling up threes, as well as quick kick-outs to elite shooters.

Like any defense, this method has its weaknesses. Players with elite pull-up games (think Tyler Herro) or floaters (Ty Jerome, for example) can take advantage of the exact shot the Clippers are ceding. They’re vulnerable to teams who can play five legitimate shooters, giving them high-level shooters on both wings, as well as creating pick-and-pop alignment that eliminates the recovering defender.

This defense is, though, ideal for playing the Nuggets.

With less-than-deadeye shooters in Aaron Gordon, Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther all a part of their expected playoff rotation, and the Michael Porter/Jamal Murray combination notoriously inconsistent, LA will be able to drop, stack and hedge to their heart's content on most occasions.

If the Clippers do decide to engage the oft-used ‘let Jokic get his’ defense, they can lean on likely All-NBA defense first team member Ivica Zubac to at least make the Joker battle for his buckets.

With clever and elastic defenders in Kris Dunn, Kawhi Leonard, Derrick Jones and Ben Simmons on board, the Clippers can hide their lesser defenders (James Harden and Bogdan Bogdanovic) on the Nuggets' least threatening shooters, who are usually stationed in the corner.

This creates an opening for Denver, though. One of their least threatening shooters — Gordon and Westbrook — will likely be marked by Harden. Both (Gordon especially) are excellent cutters who thrive as targets for Jokic. Harden’s almost legendarily inattentive off-ball defense should be a sore point for Denver to press upon.

Denver has the Point Jokic lever, if they choose to use it. Running Jokic as the ball carrier in a pick-and-roll requires Zubac to play at screen level, compromising LA’s preferred stack-and-drop alignment. Would that force the Clippers to play a smaller, switch-everything lineup? Does that allow Jokic to dominate his man?

Ultimately, the Clippers' defense looks tailor-made to take on these Nuggets. Nevertheless, the Joker, as always, can never be counted out.

Game 1 is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.