How does the NBA’s lottery reform impact the Toronto Raptors?

On other platforms, I’ve detailed why I think this new reform is counterintuitive to the NBA draft’s purposes. Here is a video I made for the Athletic explaining my reasoning:

Now, as I say all of this, and while I continue to lament that I think this reform will cause more problems than solve anything, I am, at the very least, intrigued by the ramifications of all of this.

How does this impact how teams scheme throughout a regular season? Do they tank to start and then find themselves in that sweet spot? Will play-in teams now tank for a shot at a pick? This reform is only in effect until 2029. How does that change the value of 1st round picks beyond then? And maybe more importantly, how does it change the value of a draft pick from now until then?

Beyond that, I wonder how this impacts a team like the Toronto Raptors.

Armed with all of their future first-round draft capital, primed to take a leap or make a big swing move and enter perhaps an even more legitimate competitive window, do the Raptors become more conscientious of the precarious position the NBA draft is in over the next few years, or do they use it to their advantage?

It’s worth looking at the history of the front office. Even though this is the first summer with Bobby Webster fully at the helm, he has still been a big part of the Raptors’ decision-making nucleus over the last decade. In that 10-year span, the Raptors have never traded more than one first-round pick in any deal. The most they’ve spent in the last five years has been on Brandon Ingram (one 1st), Jakob Poeltl (one 1st and two 2nds), and Thaddeus Young (one conditional 1st).

This new ‘3-2-1’ reform has inherently increased the value of first-round picks. With flattened odds, more teams believe they have a chance, and so, the value of each of those picks increased by a bunch. So, theoretically, if the Raptors were looking to get off a contract like Poeltl, it might require less pick capital than it did at the deadline. Could the Raptors look to dump him for the cost of just one pick?

One GM told Jake Fischer at the combine that “there is no way” he’s trading any picks passed 2029. Well, what if the Raptors do?

On the opposite end, could the Raptors use their pick capital to take a big swing on a big-time player? Let’s say Donovan Mitchell, Kyrie Irving, or LaMelo Ball become available this summer. Would the Raptors be able to outbid other teams simply by including more pick capital in a timid trade market? One GM told Jake Fischer at the combine that “there is no way” he’s trading any picks passed 2029. Well, what if the Raptors do and outbid everyone? Or, would they be less willing to make a trade now, given that, in this environment, falling out of the playoffs or the play-in in a season you don’t have your pick, would mean potentially gift-wrapping a top-5 pick to another team?

Regardless, this new reform has improved the value of being in the middle of your conference. It’s created flexibility for teams like the Raptors, who may not be contenders yet but are certainly done with tanking and rebuilding. You can be more conservative and have it pay off.

It will be fascinating to see how teams react to this new rule, and, seemingly, we will see its effects in how the Raptors operate starting this summer.

Let’s see how it shakes out.