How Nikola Jovic fits into the Heat's future

Nikola Jovic was always supposed to be a project when the Miami Heat drafted him in the first round of the 2022 NBA draft. Just two years ago it appeared as if he was going to be a breakout candidate and show the world the talent he possesses.

He greatly improved and then showed out playing for Serbia. The world was ready to buy stock in Jovic, and he was considered an early 6 Man of the Year candidate.

Then last year happened and Jovic completely lost his confidence and frankly looked like he was not even an NBA level player. This has brought into question his future with the Heat organization, a question that wouldn’t even have been thought of when Miami signed him to an extension of $62.4 million.

The addition of Giannis Antetokounmpo has greatly changed the roster for Miami. One of the biggest changes is the lack of flexibility, this is very important when talking about Jovic’s future.

Many have speculated that Jovic’s contract could be moved to open up space to sign other players, but it appears as if the Heat are not looking to do that currently. Because of this it is up to Jovic to find a way to contribute.

From a fit perspective Jovic is almost the perfect type of player for the Heat roster. He adds positional size in a way few others on the roster add. He also has shown that he can be a threat from the three-point line at times. These two things are the way Jovic can make his mark and solidify his place in the rotation.

Positional Size

Jovic needs to use his size to his advantage. I view him as a guard in a forward’s body. He has excellent ball handling abilities for his size, and this is evident in transition the most. The key is not his talent but his confidence. When he plays confidently and attacks the basket in transition, he consistently produces good results.

His size can be utilized more to attack mismatches though. We did see this more at times when he did play last season, but he needs to take advantage more often. Anytime a small guard is put on him, he needs to immediately punish them.

Shooting

Jovic has shown he can be a good shooter; the emphasis is on “can”. Once again, his biggest weakness is his confidence, at least this was true last year. His shooting was horrendous, but you could tell when he shot the ball, he was hoping it would go in.

The good shooters never hope they know they will make the shot. This seemingly small change in mentality greatly changes results, especially in a league like the NBA where it is difficult to get a shot off.

The numbers really stand out. Last season Jovic shot an abysmal 26.9% from behind the arc. That is genuinely awful and someone you hope is not taking many threes. The two previous years though he shot 37.1% and 39.9% respectively. He is capable.

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Amir Motameni

“Nikola Jovic has the talent to be an NBA rotation player, and I wouldn't be surprised if he bounces back after a pretty disappointing 2025-26 season. He's still just 23 years old, but going into year 5 this is a make-or-break season. He has the size, he can handle the ball and he has shown the potential to be a versatile forward. I just don’t think he will be a long term fit for the Heat. His contract extension makes him a future tradable asset and they will potentially need to make trades during this Giannis build. If he can increase his value then things could change on either end, but I just don’t see him getting a lot of minutes in the rotation, unless the Heat deal with injuries.”

Ethan J. Skolnick       

"Let's start here: there are many inside the Heat organization who still believe in Jovic, and are hoping for a bounce back similar to that of Jaime Jaquez Jr. last season. And of course, it pays to think that way, since the Heat committed to Jovic financially prior to his disastrous season. The question is how much Erik Spoelstra buys into Jovic, after touting him last summer only for Jovic to fall flat in a number of ways. Spoelstra needs to two things: find a consistent role for Jovic, even if it's limited, and then feed his confidence. Jovic's size and playmaking ability give him value, especially as the fourth "big" with Bobby Portis Jr. now on hand to help, but the shooting touch will only come back if he's comfortable. I'm expecting a better season. How much better? We'll see."