How Ryan Rollins has gone from revelation to reserve

Rollins was poised to at least be Option 1b to Tyler Herro's 1a, but instead has fallen into a morass of Bucks scoring in the low double digits per game. Herro has taken the first option mantle and ran with it, averaging 21.9 points per game this season. Rollins is in fourth place at 11.0 per game.

There is more to basketball than scoring the ball, and Rollins' passing and defense have been strong to start the season. Not strong enough to justify dropping from 17.3 points per game to 11, with huge drops in both two-point (52.3% down to 40.8% this season) and three-point (40.6% down to 26.3%) efficiency.

It's hard to tie that regression to any one aspect of Rollins' game. Basically every kind of shot type has been markedly worse for Rollins this season compared to last. His catch-and-shoot three-point percentage is down from 41.9% to 36.4%. Rollins shot 51.3% on drives last season and is at just 40.5% through seven games, and is also driving less often.

While driving more often and better would be great for Rollins, the biggest problem with his scoring this season has been the complete lack of a pull-up jumper from distance. Rollins' off-dribble jumper was the straw that stirred the drink for him last season: he knocked down 39% of his pull-up threes and made 181 total pull-up jumpers, first on the Bucks and 21st in the NBA.

Among the 26 players to take at least 400 pull-up jumpers last season, Rollins tied Kevin Durant and Luka Doncic for fifth-best effective field goal percentage. Simply put, Rollins was an elite off-dribble shooter over a significant 74 game sample.

In 2026-27, Rollins is shooting a brutal 27.6% on all pull-up shots. That percentage is actually anchored by shooting a strong 50% on pull-up twos: a slight improvement from his 46.7% success rate on those same shots last season. Somehow, Rollins is yet to make a single pull-up three through seven games. He's 0/13 on those looks, sinking his overall effective field goal percentage from 52.6% last season to 27.6% so far in 2026-27.

The good news for Rollins is if he can find that three-point touch, the rest of his game looks great. The drives will open up more if defenses have to respect his three-ball, and Rollins has improved his biggest weakness from last season by raising his assist-to-turnover ratio from 2.07 to 2.75. Despite spending a ton of time handling the ball for Milwaukee, Rollins is sixth on the team in total turnovers and has only coughed up the rock 11 times in 175 minutes.

Although it's felt like a long seven games for Rollins and the Bucks thus far, the sample size on all shooting percentages is still quite small. The difference between last season's Durant-level efficiency and where Rollins has been this season is literally five made threes out of his first 13 attempts. A hot shooting week would get the numbers back on track quickly.

Others Waiting for Opportunities

The bad news is that Rollins' slump has already cost him some opportunity. Rookie Brayden Burries got the start ahead of Rollins on Monday night.

While Burries didn't exactly snatch the starting spot for life with his performance, the 10th overall pick rookie has an inherent advantage in getting minutes versus a potential pending free agent. Rollins played 17 minutes and 20 seconds on Monday, his fewest minutes played in an NBA game since April 11, 2025.

It does seem like Jenkins is trying to convey that all spots are truly up for grabs on the 2026-27 Milwaukee Bucks, so Rollins should still have opportunities to pry that starting spot back over the coming weeks. He'll need to find that pull-up jumper touch in a hurry to do so, though, given the organizational prioritization of developing Burries.