Lakers are predicted to be mediocre by analytical models

The Los Angeles Lakers are the only team in the NBA with two consensus top-10 players, Luka Doncic and LeBron James, along with another All-Star-caliber player, Austin Reaves.

Add to that famed trio, the Lakers bolstered their roster this offseason with the additions of Marcus Smart, the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year, and Deandre Ayton, a former No. 1 overall pick and a career double-double machine. Despite all that talent, ESPN's analytical models project the Lakers to be mediocre in the 2025-26 season.

Lakers predicted to win 36 games

ESPN's Kevin Pelton, using his stats-based projections, predicts the Lakers will finish with a 36-46 record and the 13th seed in the West. Pelton believes that James' injury concerns — the veteran star has yet to be cleared for full-contact practice — and the uncertainty surrounding the new roster additions will be the undoing of JJ Redick's team.

Amazingly, Pelton projects the Lakers will be out of contention for the playoffs by Feb. 15, 2026, allowing LeBron James to watch his son, Bryce James, play in the NCAA Tournament for the Arizona Wildcats.  

Lakers have major shooting concerns

ESPN's Tim Bontemps shares many of Pelton's concerns for the Lakers, but his issues extend beyond just injuries. Bontemps believes the Lakers lack perimeter shooting and rim protection, which will hinder their ability to compete with the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

"The Lakers -- fairly -- believe a team led by Doncic and James can contend with anyone," he wrote. "However, that requires both players to be healthy. And with James already dealing with a sciatica problem that threatens the start of his season for the first time in his remarkable career -- plus his status as the league's oldest player, who is approaching his 41st birthday -- health is going to be a constant question. And that's before the potential shooting issues, as well as the perimeter and interior defensive concerns for this team."

Further to Bontemps' point, the Lakers ranked 14th in 3P% (36.6 percent) and 15th in 3PM (13.3) in the 2024-25 season. To address those issues, they signed Jake LaRavia, a career 37.1% 3P shooter, this offseason. However, Smart and Ayton, their other two free-agency additions, are not known for their outside shooting, and the likes of Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves and Jarred Vanderbilt are not reliable long-range shooters, either.