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Luka Doncic MVP Chances: Is This Finally His Year?

Mar 31, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic (77) smiles after a dunk in the final minutes of the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

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Luka Doncic MVP Chances: Is This Finally His Year?

Originally posted on Stadium Rant | By David Desa | Last updated Aug 18, 2026 7:25 AM ET

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Is a Luka Doncic MVP season upon us once and for all? He’s one of the best players on the planet, but what separates him from being in that conversation is the hardware. He’s finished top eight in MVP voting six different times since being drafted in 2018 to the Dallas Mavericks, with his highest finish being third place. That was the 2023-24 season, when he led his team to the NBA Finals and battled the Boston Celtics for five games, ultimately losing the series. The Los Angeles Lakers built a whole new team around him, but can it help him win the MVP trophy?

Luka Doncic MVP: The Real Reason He Hasn’t Won It Yet

Doncic’s failure to win the MVP has never been about the stats. He has career averages of 29.2 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 8.2 assists. Averaging close to a triple-double for his whole career is absurd, which also makes you wonder why he hasn’t won an MVP. Much of it has to do with how much his teams win in the regular season, as the player is more likely to win the award with a higher seed. Doncic has only finished as a top-three seed once in his career, and it was in the 2024-25 season, when he didn’t play enough games to qualify for the award.

Luka Doncic MVP voting finishes by season:

2018–19: Unranked (Won Rookie of the Year)

2019–20: 4th place

2020–21: 6th place

2021–22: 5th place

2022–23: 8th place

2023–24: 3rd place (received 566 total points and 4 first-place equivalent support votes)

2024–25: Unranked / Out of the top tier

2025–26: 4th place (250 total points; 0 first-place votes, 1 second-place vote, 8 third-place votes, 60 fourth-place votes, 23 fifth-place votes)

Out of the last eight MVP winners in the last eight seasons, only one player won MVP without being a top-three seed: Nikola Jokic in 2022. Team success plays a vital role in a player’s eligibility for the award, and this Lakers team might have a hard time achieving that. The first two seeds most likely won’t be obtainable for Los Angeles, as the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs are much better. Both of those teams will most likely win 60 or more games again this next season, which leaves an opening for that third spot.

Mar 27, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic (77) dribbles against Brooklyn Nets guard Terance Mann (14) during the second half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: William Liang-Imagn Images

Many other teams will be fighting for the third seed, like the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets , and Minnesota Timberwolves. It’s not impossible to reach that seed, but after a shakeup of the whole roster, Los Angeles will need to gel fast, compared to teams that already have chemistry. Doncic could see his usage increase even more, with LeBron James no longer on the roster, as he held a 38% usage rate with James. He put up 33.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game on 47.6% from the field and 36.6% from the three-point line.

End Of My Luka Doncic MVP Rant

Will Doncic’s big numbers result in team success and bring a coveted MVP season? Most likely not, and it’s not because he’s not good enough. The talent around the league is no joke, and the Lakers are behind in that department. He’ll likely place in the top five once again behind guys like Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama, and Jayson Tatum. Doncic will continue to put up historic numbers. He won’t have the MVP handed to him though due to his team’s record.

This article first appeared on Stadium Rant and was syndicated with permission.

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