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Mavericks guard Luka Doncic boosted his scoring average from 21.2 points in his rookie season to 28.7 points in 2019-20. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Luka Legend? Mavericks' Doncic on trajectory of all-time greats

By Pat Heery | Last updated 3/30/20

Every NBA season, a handful of young players make “The Leap,” ascending to stardom. Typically, this happens in the third, fourth or fifth season. Every so often, however, a player makes an even greater leap, at an even younger age, than his peers. Think LeBron James when he went from averaging 20.9 points, 5.9 assists and 5.5 rebounds as a rookie to 27.2 points, 7.2 assists and 7.4 rebounds in his 2004-05 sophomore season.

Well, that’s the kind of jump Dallas' Luka Doncic has made in 2019-20, only his second season in the league. If this cursed season is actually over, let's take a few minutes to appreciate what the 21-year-old Slovenian prodigy has accomplished, analyze areas for improvement and project his career arc.

The Luka Leap

Doncic and the Mavericks (40-27) may never get to finish their exciting 2019-20 season, but that’s almost irrelevant in the context of his ascension to greatness. Doncic has zipped past the “future All-Star” designation and into the “future MVP” discussion. In fact, had he not suffered ankle injuries that caused him to miss 11 games, the NBA’s MVP race might very well be a three-man race among Giannis, LeBron and Luka. (Doncic should run away with the Most Improved Player award.)

After a historically good rookie season in which he put up better numbers (21.2 ppg., 7.8 rpg., and 6.0 apg.) than LeBron did as a rookie, Doncic showed up for training camp in much better shape. And, boy, did it ever show. In 54 games, Doncic has averaged 28.7 points (sixth in NBA), 9.3 rebounds (19^th)and 8.7 assists (fourth). He leads the league in triple-doubles (14).

It wasn’t just an increase in usage that brought about his ascension, though. He became a more efficient overall player this season. He got to the basket more easily, and more frequently, than during his rookie season. Doncic has already made 251 shots inside five feet of the basket, shooting 69.3 percent in doing so. In 72 games last season, he made 198 field goals within five feet, shooting 58.8 percent. Doncic also came to camp a much stronger player. He has used that greater strength to get to the line more, increasing his free throw attempts per game from 6.7 to 9.1.

And while some might argue that Doncic gets an artificial stat boost because the Mavericks run their offense through him, those detractors are not seeing the entire picture. Yes, Doncic has the league’s second-highest usage rate (37 percent). However, he’s the orchestrator of the highest-rated offense in NBA history. That’s right, the Mavericks are averaging 116.7 per 100 possessions, edging the 2018-19 Warriors (115.9), 1986-87 Showtime Lakers (115.6) and 2016-17 Warriors (115.6) as the most efficient offense ever. This feat is all the more astonishing when you consider that the Mavericks’ second and third options on offense are Kristaps Porzingis (19.2 ppg.) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (15.8 ppg.). Compare that to the second and third options on the aforementioned Warriors and Lakers teams.

Doncic has made Mark Cuban a happy owner. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

How can he improve?

Let’s hope he doesn’t do this, but if Doncic doesn’t improve his game one iota the rest of his career, he’ll still be an All-NBA level player for many years and, if he stays healthy, a Hall of Famer. (Somebody hose down Mark Cuban!) So how does a player averaging 29-9-9 improve? Well, despite these gaudy numbers, Doncic still has obvious flaws in his game.

For one, his defense could still use work. From his rookie to sophomore season, Doncic’s individual offensive rating has increased from 107.6 to 117.0, but his individual defensive rating is worse, falling from 110.6 to 110.8 points per 100 possessions. While his athletic limitations will ultimately prevent him from becoming an All-Defense-level stopper, Doncic should have the strength and enough lateral ability to keep the other team’s worst wing player or second big from taking advantage of him. Hell, if James Harden can turn himself into an adequate post defender, so can Luka. Furthermore, Doncic is smart and savvy enough to improve upon his career average of 1.1 steals per game. If he can get that number closer to two steals per game, he can at least be an opportunistic turnover creator like Steph Curry and Russell Westbrook in their primes.

On offense, Doncic's next step is to become a more efficient three-point shooter. While Doncic’s overall field goal percentage has risen from 42.7 percent to 46.1 percent, his three-point shooting has taken a hit this season, falling from 32.7 percent to 31.8 percent. Likewise, his patented step-back three-point shot has fallen from 36.1 percent to 34.7 percent. Granted, Doncic’s increased usage means that he’s shooting more difficult shots with the shot clock winding down, but shooting in the low-30s from three isn’t going to cut it if he wants to take that next step. If Doncic can get his three-point percentages to resemble the likes of Harden, who has shot 36.1 percent from three and 38.1 percent on step-back threes the past two seasons, he’ll be the most unstoppable offensive player in the game.

Statistically, Luka Doncic's game resembles James Harden's. He may eventually be better than The Beard. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

What will his prime look like?

Speaking of Harden, Doncic’s all-encompassing command of the Mavericks' offense already has drawn comparisons to The Beard. While Doncic does have a similar tank-like frame and innate ability to change speed and direction to create space like Harden, Doncic seems more enjoyable to play with than the Rockets' star.

From an aesthetic standpoint, Doncic spends far less time in isolations than Harden, averaging 4.0 isolations compared to Harden’s 14.5 per game. And from a ball movement standpoint, Doncic passes the ball 61.4 times a game, resulting in an average of 22.4 points per game by his teammates (third best in the league); Harden only passes 49 times a game, resulting in 18.7 points per game by his teammates. Basically, if Doncic can get his three-point shooting and step-back game closer to Harden’s in terms of efficiency, he’ll be a “fun” version of The Beard. Doncic could average 30-35 points a game, flirt with triple-doubles regularly, and be the conductor of the best offense in the NBA.

Statistically, Luka’s game might resemble Harden’s, but stylistically, and from a historical standpoint, Luka should be aiming to become the modern-day Larry Bird. Like Larry Legend, one of Doncic’s greatest gifts is his cerebral understanding of the game. He sees passes and angles that most players never dream of -– I mean, look at these assists and ball fakes! Remind you of Larry Legend at all, eh? Bird had all the ball fakes too!

Although Bird didn’t have the ball in his hands as often as Doncic does –- he only finished in the in the top-five in usage rate once in his career (30.2 percent) –- Larry Legend was still elite at getting his teammates involved. He averaged 6.3 assists per game for his career. Also like Doncic, Bird was a surprisingly elite rebounder for his size (6-foot-9) and position (10.0 rpg. for his career). Doncic already is a more effortless scorer than Bird, but for him to become this generation’s version of Larry, he must improve his defense. (Bird was a three-time All-Defensive player.)

At 21, Luka is on a Mount Rushmore-like path, the type of career journey all-time greats make. So be sure to check out as many Mavericks games as you can when basketball resumes, because you’ll be watching the early stages of what should be one of the greatest hoops careers ever.

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