Mid-Summer NBA Western Conference Standings Forecast

The NBA’s Western Conference has been viewed as the best and deepest Conference for basically the last 30+ years, and it’s reflected by the fact that the West has produced more NBA Champions, more All-Star Game winners from the traditional East vs. West format, and NBA MVP’s, in that time.

But heading into the 2026-27 season, the sentiment is that for the first time at least this century, the East could actually be better and far more competitive than the West, as the East has no true front-runner but plenty of teams that could take the crown, while the West is pretty much seen as a two-horse race between Oklahoma City and San Antonio.

But that doesn’t mean that the West won’t still be a deep conference full of teams poised for better seasons and possible surprise runs. 

Western Conference Playoff Forecast

It’s only August, and there’s still nearly two months before the season begins, but given that almost every big name on the free agency or trade market has landed in their new destination, giving some finality to most of the rosters, it’s a great time to check in on the NBA’s Western Conference and see how each team projects to finish.

1- Oklahoma City Thunder (60-22)

It shouldn’t be a foregone conclusion that Oklahoma City is going to earn the No. 1 seed in the West, but that’s actually who we are going with to earn the No. 1 seed in the West.

They’re still the deepest team in the NBA and have the best player in the NBA currently in the middle of his prime, and are consistently one of the best offensive and defensive teams who are also one of the most well-coached teams.

If healthy, this team should once again be the best in the West and have a great shot at going deep in the playoffs.

2- Minnesota Timberwolves (55-27)

Minnesota’s additions of Lamelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga are two of the most impactful of the offseason in totality, as they’ve added a ton of shooting, rebounding, and defense to a team that has been stagnant over the past few seasons. 

The hopeful emergence of Ayo and Shannon this season is also a big reason as to why I believe Minnesota will finally take a leap, as they showed in the playoffs during pivotal moments that they can be trusted, so expanding their roles this season should be a priority.

Anthony Edwards has been a perennial top 10 level player in the NBA for the past few seasons, but now it’s time to make that leap and be a top five player, or maybe even the best in the world, which I believe he could do. If he does that with the new pieces around him, Minnesota will finally be able to break through their ceiling.

3- Los Angeles Lakers (52-30)

When you have Luka Doncic on your team, you’re going to win a lot of games because he just does magical things on the offensive end during the regular season, and that will be no different this season.

Los Angeles went on a spending spree this Summer that some see as non-needle-moving, but it’s probably a better team on paper than it was last season. Walker Kessler will provide a presence inside and be a great lob threat for Luka, which is something that was very important for the Mavs’ run to the NBA Finals a few years ago.

Overall there’s enough here to be great, it all really just comes down to how much Luka plays. 

4- San Antonio Spurs (52-30)

San Antonio is the popular pick to be the No. 1 seed and win the NBA Championship, but I believe we have to be responsible in our assumptions that players are going to take certain leaps and that every player will stay healthy.

Wemby does always carry a big injury concern, and it has to be factored in. We also can’t be positive that Stephon Castle is just going to limit turnovers and become way better from behind the arc. And we can’t just be positive that Dylan Harper is going to be so good that he completely overtakes De’Aaron Fox’s role on this team.

While each of those things can be assumed, they should be responsibly assumed, while also considering that they just may not all happen. 

Castle will likely be a bit better shooting and he may cut down on turnovers a bit, Wemby may develop more of a post game and play more games with less injuries, and Harper may work more in tandem with Fox and earn a bigger role, but for now I’m just assuming that San Antonio remains about as good as they were last year, with some other teams getting better around them.

5- Portland Trail Blazers (47-35)

Portland lost Shaedon Sharpe already for what will likely be most, if not all of the regular season, but that could be a good thing in the long run as their rotation will not be as hard to figure out now.

If Damian Lillard returns and just looks like his normal self or somewhere in that ballpark, he can add a lot to a team that was surprisingly good last season and raise their floor while also raising their ceiling.

The fit of Ja Morant will be the biggest story and could make or break how good this team is, but I believe he will do more good than bad for them this season and help bring them to the playoffs yet again, this time avoiding the play-in.

6- Dallas Mavericks (46-36)

I’m expecting a huge year two leap for Cooper Flagg this season now that he has Kyrie Irving back to help him settle into what he should be at this level, and worry less about doing it all as a young player still learning his way.

Kyrie’s return will make a huge impact on the flow of the offense this season as well, as long as he returns and looks sort of like himself just as we said with Damian Lillard previously.

This is still a team that’s pretty well-constructed with plenty of pieces from the Finals run in 2024, and if Cooper Flagg makes the leap that some expect him to, Dallas could be a very sneaky threat to not just make the playoffs, but make a deep run that rivals the one from 2024.

7- Houston Rockets (45-37)

This season Houston is more likely to look like the team we thought they would be last season, as they’ve made upgrades at point guard bringing in Marcus Smart and they’ll be getting Fred VanVleet back as well.

It’s easy to forget that Houston could be that good though, as many are quick to doubt them based on the taste they left in everyone’s mouth during the playoffs, even though Kevin Durant’s absence did severely impact how it played out.

This time around, there will be a better flowing offense and the defense will once again be great, and it’s conceivable that they could actually challenge for a much higher seed, and be a big threat to go deep in the playoffs.

8- Denver Nuggets (45-37)

Denver has done nothing good for themselves this offseason aside from picking up DeMar DeRozan on a cheap deal, and that’s a bad sign for a team that should be operating as if they’re in the middle of a title window.

They’ll still probably be a playoff team because of Jokic alone, who will win them a lot of games, but it’s not crazy to say that they fall into the play-in because the roster is still thin, you may deal with more injuries to Jokic and Gordan which causes them to miss time, you probably won’t get the same level of play from Murray that he showed last season, and DeRozan is probably not moving the needle too much, though he’s a great pickup.

9- Phoenix Suns (42-40)

Phoenix has a great team this season but their ceiling is based almost entirely upon how much you believe in Devin Booker as a first option. Is he capable of raising his level of play to that of an All-NBA level player while also raising the play of his teammates?

If you think he is capable of that, Phoenix has enough around him to be a playoff lock, avoiding the play-in.

But I just have a hard time believing that Booker plays his very best brand of basketball and guides the Suns this season. They’re more likely to float around the play-in seeds, and I have them firmly in that range because the roster as a whole is good enough to do that at a bare minimum.

10- Utah Jazz (34-48)

Utah is a team that I want to believe will make a huge improvement, but given the rest of the teams in the West and NBA as a whole, I can’t convince myself of that just yet.

At their best, I truly believe this team has the talent to land a top six seed, and at their worst, they could fool everyone and lose a ton of games again to land near the bottom of the standings. 

The roster is there for them to make some noise, but it all comes down to how well they mesh together and if they can actually win when they’re trying to, because seeing them try to win games has been rare as of late and it’s something that we know nothing about when it comes to them.

11- Golden State Warriors (34-48)

At this point, it’s best for Golden State to just make a definitive decision. Either respect Steph Curry enough to go all in for him or respect him enough to trade him to someone who will go all in for him.

Right now the roster isn’t where it needs to be for Golden State to win a championship, and given the injury concerns for Curry now, it’s probably not even in a spot for anyone to believe this team will be competitive for anything at all. 

That’s exactly why they land here outside of the play-in. If they can make it to Jimmy Butler’s return with their heads above water, it changes everything, but getting there is the hard part. And getting there is the part that not many fans believe in. 

12- New Orleans Pelicans (30-52)

On paper, New Orleans has a roster capable of making at least a play-in push, but games aren’t played on paper and because of it New Orleans just can’t be trusted to do much more this season than they have in the past.

They still have a good core, but it’s clear at this point that Zion Williamson just is what he is: an injury-prone player who isn’t capable of leading a team to the great heights that we all wanted him to. 

And beyond that, the organization just doesn’t seem to be keen on winning, or at least trying to win, for some reason. So we shouldn’t expect them to start caring all of a sudden this year.

13- Memphis Grizzlies (26-56)

Memphis is searching for an identity after trading away most of their best players in the past two seasons, and I don’t see them finding that identity this season, so another down year near the bottom of the West is most likely.

14- Los Angeles Clippers (25-57)

Los Angeles could have a much higher ceiling this season than what I’m projecting due to Darius Garland making a potential leap and Keaton Wagler immediately making a huge impact. 

But that’s something I just don’t expect to make them a much better team than any of the teams in the pack ahead of them, so they land here at 14.

15- Sacramento Kings (17-65)

Sacramento is probably the most unserious organization in the NBA, if not in all of sports, and they should once again be expected to do a whole lot of nothing this season.