NBA best bets and odds: Expert picks, player props and predictions for 5/10

Knicks vs. Pacers

Friday, May 10, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Pacers 1H -4.5 (FanDuel)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

I like the Pacers to isolate the Knicks in the first half. I think they win this game handily, but I’d rather target the first 24 minutes than the full game because the trends are just a little bit friendlier.

Teams down 0-2 coming home are 70-38-2 ATS in the first half since 2005, according to Bet Labs. If we look since 2015-16, that record is 25-11-1.

I expect the Pacers to come out fast and aggressive and sustain an early lead against a Knicks team playing with a less-than-100% Jalen Brunson, and without OG Anunoby in the lineup.

Pick: Pacers 1H -4.5

Pacers TT Over 114.5 (Bet365)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

If you think the Pacers win (like I do), then you should take over 114.5 for their team total. And with the Knicks depleted, there’s a good chance they will.

Anunoby won’t play in Game 3, and with Jalen Brunson questionable, that leaves an already worn out roster even more vulnerable against the Pacers in their first home game of the series.

With a fast-paced, high-powered offense like Indiana, its success is predicated on scoring points, even if it means giving up a lot of them.

In their 51 wins from the regular season and postseason combined, the Pacers scored 115+ points in 48 of them, and one was without Pascal Siakam or Tyrese Haliburton.

Even if they lose this game, there’s still a great chance they go over 115 with Anunoby — the Knicks' best defender — out of the lineup.

The Pacers don’t always win when they score a lot of points, but they always score a lot of points when they win. They're 6-2 to the team total over and have cleared 115 in all but two games against the Bucks — when they scored 92 and 94 points.

This is my favorite bet of the playoffs so far, and it's a two-unit play for me.

Pick: Pacers TT Over 114.5

Josh Hart Over 5.5 Assists & Triple-Double (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

Josh Hart has been a true iron man for the Knicks. He’s played every minute of these games for New York and has been instrumental to its success.

Without Anunoby in Game 3, even more of the burden will fall on Hart, and while he can't play more minutes than 48, he can handle a greater usage.

In the two games in this series, he’s recorded seven and eight assists. And in his last six games without OG (and Randle), he’s recorded eight, seven, six, eight, 10 and 10.

In the 27 games he’s played without OG since he joined the Knicks, he’s averaged 6.2 assists and has recorded five triple doubles.

I’ll back Hart to exceed 5.5 assists and to record a triple-double (+1100).

Pick: Josh Hart Over 5.5 Assists & Triple-Double

T.J. McConnell Over 16.5 Points+Assists (FanDuel)

By Maltman

Most of this series is defined by one player: Brunson. So far in this series, the Pacers have tried almost everyone on him. Andrew Nembhard has been unable to get anything done and has been torched by Brunson repeatedly.

But the guy who's given him trouble? T.J. McConnell

McConnell has been +9 in both games in this series and has been part of the lifeblood driving the Pacers to success. He's played 20+ minutes in both games, just as he did in the clinching Game 6 against Milwaukee.

When McConnell played at least 20+ minutes in the regular season, he went over this line 19-of-26 times (73%). In the playoffs, he's played 20+ minutes in the last three games and has gone over it every time.

In the other games, when he played fewer, he went under.

McConnell is locked into a crucial role here, and 20+ minutes seems like the floor for him in tonight's game.

I'm betting .6u on McConnell over 16.5 points + assists at -115 on FanDuel or Fanatics. I would bet it down to -125.

Pick: T.J. McConnell Over 16.5 Points+Assists