NBA best bets: Fast pace means lots of points

Yeah, the Eagles did win and cover that spread, thanks for asking. Anyway, we move on to a new day.

It's an NBA kind of night with the only major sports league in session tonight. We tend to look for games that seem set for plenty of points, and a few games check off the boxes we'd like to see for Tuesday on the hardwood.

Let pace of play power your NBA direction

Two games tonight include both teams that rank inside the top 10 for most possessions per game, or translated: Rank among the fastest pace-of-play teams in the league.

The first is the Indiana Pacers visiting the Atlanta Hawks.

No team plays faster than Indiana this season, and Atlanta ranks sixth. The Pacers, led by Tyrese Haliburton, own the NBA's top offensive rating at this juncture, while the Trae Young-led Hawks rank fifth-best on the offensive end.

Then you turn to the other side, and oh, it looks so beautiful for points. Indiana's defensive rating comes in as the fourth-worst in the NBA, and Atlanta's is only a tad better, ninth-worst on the defensive side of things.

There's a simple equation we've made up for this one. Fast pace + great offenses + bad defense = A ton of points. The last time these two met, the total points scored was 273. We're going to have to go back to that route given this clear intersection. Indiana is a league-best 11-1 to the over this year.

Then there's the Utah Jazz heading to face the Los Angeles Lakers.

Both teams rank among the fastest teams in the league, and they tend to find themselves in high-scoring affairs. The past four meetings have seen these two average 253.5 points scored per game. Utah is 10-3 to the over this season, a worthy trend that should continue in this one.

Betting: IND-ATL over 250 points (-110 DK)

Betting: UTAH-LAL over 236 points (-110 DK)

In the news ...

Eagles come back and beat Chiefs 21-17 — The Chiefs came back and won in the Super Bowl after being down by 10 points at the half, so the Eagles returned the favor on Monday night. Philadelphia held Kansas City scoreless in the second half to launch a comeback and win 21-17 in a massive Week 11 game. The Eagles now sit at 9-1, still in first in the NFC, while the Chiefs fell to 7-3 and dropped down to the AFC's second seed behind the 8-3 Ravens. Philly and KC are both +450 to win the Super Bowl, we may soon see these teams meet again.

College Football Playoff rankings will be released tonight — Forgive us if we're confused as to why these rankings need to be held until 7 p.m. ET in a televised release, but we digress. The updated CFP rankings will be released tonight. The top four held strong, as No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Florida State all won, but No. 5 Washington had the win of the weekend as the underdog to a top-12 team in Oregon State. Might Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies jump into the top four? It doesn't really matter. If Washington wins out, they're a lock for the playoff, because this Saturday will showcase Michigan vs. Ohio State. The loser is all but out of the race. Stay tuned tonight for the updated rankings.

New York Jets bench Zach Wilson — It seems the Jets are embracing the tank now, benching Zach Wilson and announcing Tim Boyle will start at QB this week in the NFL's inaugural "Black Friday" game. It's likely not what Amazon was hoping for when they booked the Jets-Dolphins game. Boyle will likely start the rest of the way for New York, who held on to their 2024 first-round pick because Aaron Rodgers did not play 65% of the snaps this season. The Dolphins are 9.5-point favorites on the road Friday.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll, the guy who won $8K on a $20 NFL parlay. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.