NBA best bets: Top 7 picks for Monday 5/13

Celtics vs. Cavaliers

Monday, May 13, 7 p.m. ET, TNT
Under 207.5 (-112, FanDuel)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

A few elements are in play for this to be a strong under play. The first is the situational profile for both teams. The Celtics play at the slowest pace of any playoff team on the road, while the Cavaliers have the second-best defense of any home team but just a 104 offensive rating — the least efficient of any remaining playoff team.

This spot also fits a strong playoff trend. Since the 2005 season, in games featuring a home underdog, the under is 208-167-3 for a 7.8% ROI, according to Bet Labs, dating back to the 2021-22 season, and 9-2 this season.

Under those same parameters, if the previous game also went under — as was the case in Game 3 —  the under is 113-75-2 since 2005 (16.9% ROI), and a perfect 5-0 this season. I like the under down to 204.

Pick: Under 207.5 (-112)

Celtics vs. Cavaliers

Jayson Tatum Under 28.5 Points (-125, Hard Rock)

By Bryan Fonseca

Jayson Tatum has one game of over 28.5 points in the playoffs — his last game.

He had 33. He is literally 1 for 8, with only one other performance of at least 25 points.

He hasn't gone over 28.5 in back to back playoff games since Games 1 and 2 of last year's Eastern Conference Finals against the Heat. He has done it several times since 2020 — eight to be exact, with five streaks going to a third game over 28.5 points, and three going to a fourth.

With all that, he's over in 32 of 102 in his playoff career — 32 of 74 going back to his first such over in 2020.

And aside from that, Tatum is shooting 41% from the field and 22% from 3-point range in the playoffs, saved somewhat by going 22 for 24 on free throws. He has four threes in the whole playoffs. I just can't go over unless he is definitely back on track, but he hasn't even been the best Celtic in these playoffs.

Pick: Jayson Tatum Under 28.5 Points (-125)

Celtics vs. Cavaliers

Cavaliers +8.5 (-110, DraftKings)

By Chris Baker

The Cavs lost Game 3 but I really didn’t think they played all that poorly. For the most part, that game was just shot variance as the Cavs didn’t defensive rebound poorly or turn the ball over at high rates. The problem was they shot just 53% at the rim and 33.3% from three.

I was impressed with their rim and 3-point rates as they took 41% of their shots at the rim and 42% shots from three. This is good offensive process and if these shots start falling they will be able to compete and maybe win with margin like they did in Game 2.

The halfcourt offense disparity in Game 3 was just 6.2 points per 100 possessions as the Celtics had an offensive rating of 107.4 to the Cavs 101.2. The major problem that the Cavs need to solve in Game 4 is defensive rebounding as the Cavs allowed the Celtics to rebound 33.3% of their misses in the halfcourt.

I think their defensive rebounding will improve with Dean Wade potentially seeing more than 17 minutes. Wade was very good in Game 3 and finished as a +12. He showed his defensive prowess and most of his three point attempts were on-target. Wade is a major factor for me as the Cavs try and figure out a way to generate a few more stops per game agains Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Everything from Game 3 points to some positive shooting regression for the Cavs, so I’ll back them at +8.5 as well as a sprinkle on the moneyline at +270.

Pick: Cavaliers +8.5 (-110)

Celtics vs. Cavaliers

Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 Points 1Q (+102, DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

Since Kristaps Porzingis was injured, the Celtics have made a modification to their rotation, specifically in the first quarter. The key change is that Tatum went from playing about eight minutes per game in the opening quarter to playing 12 full minutes.

This is a notable swing, especially because those first quarter minutes had aligned with Porzingis, and Boston had made a concerted effort to involve Porzingis in the offense early and often. Now, that usage has dried up a bit and is available for the taking.

In the four games without Porzingis, he has scored 9, 9, 8, and 12 points and there’s been a healthy mix of hot shooting with generating contact and free throws. He hasn’t been reliant on drawing fouls.

On the season, when Tatum has played the entire first quarter, he averages 10.3 points for an 83% hit rate and this jumps to 12.1 points and a 100% hit rate without Porzingis in 10 games.

This is a bet on the data we have with the Celtics’ change in their rotation, and although Tatum has struggled to hit his full game points prop for the majority of this series, there is a clear level of certainty in his early rotation.

I’ll back Tatum to exceed 7.5 points in the first quarter tonight.

Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 Points 1Q (+102)

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Monday, May 13, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Tim Hardaway Jr. Under 8.5 Points (-130, Bet365)

By Bryan Fonseca

Tim Hardaway is back playing regular minutes in a spark-plug role, but has gone over only once in five games.

I've been fading him for large parts of the season because he's so damn volatile, and at around 14 minutes per game in the playoffs — 17 per game this series — I'm fine with taking another Timmy under and getting best because he doesn't have a recent track record of success.

I love taking overs on role players in home playoff games, but less so on someone shooting 31% from 3 since the All-Star Break, and whose 22.6 usage is down to 19.7 in the playoffs.

If he gets the hot hand, so be it. I'll take my chances.

Pick: Tim Hardaway Jr. Under 8.5 Points (-130)

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Over 214.5 (-115, DraftKings)

By Chris Baker

Not sure why this total has plummeted five points between Game 3 and Game 4 but I will back the over here. These teams combined for 246 and 257 in the two games they played in regular season with Luka in the lineup, and while a few of these games have gone under, I think when you dig in you see that these offenses have potential for more explosion.

First of all, this series is not being played at a slow pace as these teams are averaging about 95 possessions per game each. That’s fast for a playoff series, so then why have these games been going under? Games 1 and 2 went under because Dallas posted high offensive rebound rates and paired them with awful shooting performances. Offensive rebounds paired with missed shots equals long possessions and lots of time off the clock without points. We saw in game 2 that Dallas actually made some shots and that game went over the total fairly easily.

I think the path to the over here is either OKC defensive rebounding a bit better allowing them to get out in transition or Dallas shooting slightly better on offense. We’ve seen OKC make it a point of emphasis to run in transition, and if they can just finish a few more of these possessions on defense, I think they can beat the Mavericks down the floor with success.

Take the over 214.5 at this low number and trust these elite offenses to positively regress here.

Pick: Over 214.5 (-115)

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Thunder +1 (-110, FanDuel)

By Ray Monohan

We're on the Thunder here, as they look to even this series up after Dallas took control in Game 3. These two teams are so evenly matched and the Thunder have the edge here situationally.

Oklahoma City has proven they can win on the road this postseason and they catch Dallas here a bit banged up. Doncic has been hobbling all over the place and that is eventually going to catch up to him.

Oklahoma City needs to get back to leaning on their defense. They've only given up 96.7 points per game on average this postseason and they've been able to do it with their ability to force turnovers and close out on shooters so well.

They're at their best when they can turn defense into offense and they're going to put an emphasis on applying much more pressure inside the paint.

This is a good spot for them to step up and even things up, as they were right there in Game 3. The value sits with the Thunder in this spot.

Pick: Thunder +1 (-110)