NBA betting: Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game 1 prediction, expert pick, odds for Wed. 5/22

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Odds

Wednesday, May 22, 8:30 p.m., TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are back in the conference finals for the second time in the last three season — except the team looks a lot different and much more prepared.

Luka Doncic is now flanked by Kyrie Irving as a secondary scorer, they have reliable options to kick out to for 3, and their defensive versatility has shown.

Maxi Kleber continues to miss time and will be re-evaluated soon, but I expect him to miss the entire series.

Despite being on the road here, the Mavericks do have a small rest advantage heading into Game 1. They finished their series against the Thunder in a Game 6 at home, while the Timberwolves went on the road to finish and a Game 7 in Denver.

I think the Mavs get off to a hot start here due to their rest advantage and playoff tendencies, such as increasing Irving's first-quarter minutes.

Minnesota Timberwolves

It's nearly impossible to say anything bad about the Wolves after their biggest win in franchise history. They walked into a notoriously strong home-court environment for the Nuggets and mounted an epic Game 7 comeback against the defending champions.

Anthony Edwards has proven to be a superstar at the highest level, scoring 30 nearly every night while also playing excellent defense. Even Karl-Anthony Towns needs to be praised for his defense against three-time MVP Nikola Jokic.

The stars have aligned in Minnesota, as Edwards, Towns, Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley have all found a way to bring out the best in each other.

The key for this series will be getting off to hot starts. The Wolves are the best fourth-quarter team in the NBA, but they can't keep relying on comebacks against such high-level competition.

I'm also going to be looking at who Conley guards at the beginning of this game to attack some live angles. If Conley is on Irving, play Irving's points and assists over. If he guards Derrick Jones Jr. take a rebounding over.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves

Betting Pick & Prediction

The market has been flat and at a consensus essentially since open.

The spread opened at -4 or -4.5 depending on the book, and we haven't once seen a dip to 3.5 or a rise to 5. Considering the absence of any market movement, it's hard to feel overconfident about either side.

To me, that's an indicator that any best bets should still be small plays. CLV may not be gained, and if it is, it won't be more than a half-point or full point.

In terms of the total, we've seen the 206.5 climb to 207.5 or 208, but I personally don't want to bet an over with two top-tier defensive teams. Plus, both run a lot of pick-and-roll sets, and although they can be efficient, they slow the game down by limiting the total number of possessions.

The best and sharpest play here is the Mavericks first-quarter moneyline.

Play into the rest advantage, play into Kyrie's uptick in early minutes and play into Minnesota's knack for starting slow. And on the other side, Dallas a team that likes to come out hot.

Also look for early live betting angles based on who Conley is matched up with defensively. To reiterate, if Conley guards Irving, bet Kyrie's points and assist overs. If he guards Jones, look at rebounding overs.

Pick: Mavericks 1Q ML +120