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NBA Eastern Conference preview: A Bucks-Sixers final?
76ers center Joel Embiid (21) tangles with Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo during a game last season.  Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

NBA Eastern Conference preview: A Bucks-Sixers final?

Yardbarker NBA writers Pat Heery and Sean Keane address the hottest issues in the NBA. This week's topic: Eastern Conference preview.  (Go here for their Western Conference preview.)

Heery: For what seems like forever, the Eastern Conference has been inferior to the Western Conference. This season will be no different. That being said, the East actually has a pretty solid top 10 or 11 teams heading into the season, which tips off Tuesday. Every team that made the playoffs last season should be in postseason contention in 2019-20, and the Jimmy Butler-infused Heat, young, upstart Hawks and Bulls should also be in the playoff picture. I see four tiers in the East. 

The top tier — the 76ers and Bucks -- will contend for the NBA championship. 

The second tier — the Celtics, Pacers, Nets, Raptors, Magic, Heat and Pistons — could all conceivably finish as high as third.

 The third tier — the Hawks and Bulls — will be frisky, young teams that could make a playoff push. 

And the bottom tier — the Cavs, Wizards, Hornets and Knicks — will contend for the right to draft LaMelo Ball

Heery: So let's talk tiers first: Do you agree with my initial assessment of the East? Are there any second-tier teams you think could make a claim for being in the first tier? Is there any chance the Hornets aren't the worst team in the NBA?

Keane: I’ll take your last question first. The Hornets should be one of the worst teams in the league, but don’t sleep on the Cleveland Cavaliers, who were the worst defensive team in the league last season. The Hornets will be truly wretched, but with the Cavaliers poised to have cap space this summer, they’re motivated to be as bad as possible one last time. I don’t trust the Wizards and Knicks to be competent at anything, much less tanking, so they’ll manage to accidentally win 25-28 games.

Though the Raptors suffered serious personnel losses this summer, I’d bump them up to the top tier out of respect for their title and president of basketball ops Masai Ujiri’s trade deadline options, given that Serge Ibaka, Marc Gasol and Fred VanVleet have expiring deals. I might even promote the Celtics, who should replace about 95 percent of Kyrie Irving’s production with Kemba Walker and about 25 percent of Al Horford’s production with Enes Kanter. They’re banking on Brad Stevens getting their extremely young roster to play tough defense — seven Celtics are age 23 and under.

What really strikes me is how difficult it is to predict the East, given the massive roster turnover. The Pacers are a prime example. They got 64 percent of their minutes last season from players who won’t be in a Pacers uniform this fall. Plus, they added two T.J.s (Warren and McConnell) and a C.J. (Wilcox) this summer to play with T.J. Leaf, which seems ripe for confusion. The Nets made some huge signings, but in the process they ditched many of the players who made up their vaunted team culture. It’s great that Brooklyn signed Kevin Durant, but he’s projected to play zero minutes in 2019-20. Orlando is betting big on Markelle Fultz overcoming his thoracic outlet syndrome and remembering how to shoot. And in Detroit, the health of Blake Griffin’s legs will determine whether the Pistons are shooting for the eight seed or tanking for the No. 1 pick.


Pistons star Blake Griffin Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Keane: Whom do you think is most likely to crash and burn out of your second tier? And which offseason additions are going to pay off the most for Eastern contenders?

Heery: Teams often crash and burn when they are over-reliant upon one player, and that player either gets injured or doesn't play to his full potential. The Lakers learned this lesson last season once LeBron James hurt his groin. Thus, the team that jumps out at me like a Derrick Rose neck tattoo is Detroit.

The Pistons needed an All-NBA season from Blake Griffin last season to merely win 41 games and sneak into the playoffs as the eight seed. Griffin played 75 games in 2018-19 — the most he's played in five years! What happens to the Pistons if he misses more than 10 games this season? A Luke Kennard-Derrick Rose-Reggie Jackson-focused offense will not lead to many wins. And even if Griffin remains healthy and plays at an All-NBA level again, this team still has obvious flaws and is, by no means, guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.

As for your second question, Philly's surprise signing of Al Horford will ultimately have the biggest impact of any off-season signing in the Eastern Conference. As has been the case with Horford for most of his career, his impact won't jump off a box score at you, but rather it will be realized in the nuanced areas of the game (screening, pick-and-roll defense, facilitating, etc.). 

Here's a good way to measure Horford's impact: Does Joel Embiid look better than he did last season? If Embiid shows marked improvement on both ends of the court, it means Horford is having a massive impact. Big Al's versatility to defend playmakers on the perimeter will allow Embiid to protect the rim like never before, and his ability to space the court and pass should leave Embiid alone on the block for more isolation post-ups than ever. Lastly, Horford was an Embiid-stopper of sorts during his Celtics days. Therefore, the fact that he won't be there to slow Embiid in the playoffs is a huge win for the 76ers. 

Other impact signings include Kemba Walker, who, as you alluded to, is about 95 percent of the offensive talent Kyrie Irving was but approximately 195 percent of the leader Irving was. Thus, his impact on Boston's team chemistry will be immense. Butler should enjoy an All-NBA kind of season as the featured guy in Miami and help the Heat to a spot in the playoffs (although his psychopathic work ethic and amusement he gets from bullying teammates will almost certainly ruffle a couple of feathers along the way). Finally, I fully expect a monster, highlight-filled year from Kyrie Irving. He should be at the peak of his powers as an athlete nearing the peak of his powers in terms of basketball IQ. Unfortunately, bifurcating basketball IQ and "wokeness" doesn't seem to be possible for Kyrie, so we'll be in for a number of galaxy brain "Coffee Shop" pressers as well. 

Did I miss anyone? Are there any players in this conference whom you expect to make a huge leap this season? And where are the Wizards in trading Beal?


Jimmy Butler has a lead role in Miami this season. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Keane: I am excited about maximum intensity Butler going to the team that most embraces insane workouts and body shaming. Mark my words: He and Goran Dragic are going to get into a practice dust-up where they scream about each other’s body fat percentages. I’m eager to see the Lopez twins playing together in Milwaukee, with Brook knocking down threes and Robin knocking down mascots. The Bucks also added Giannis’ brother Thanasis, which means the Bucks will truly be a family this season, though they’re going way over their budget for jersey letters. I’m also excited to see what “Scary” Terry Rozier can do when he finally has the keys to an NBA offense. Just kidding -- the Hornets are a nightmare.

Pascal Siakam, who recently got a $130 million extension, is an obvious choice for players to make The Leap, though he’s arguably already done that by winning the Most Improved Player Award and an NBA title. The Raptors are going to have to lean hard on Siakam with Kawhi Leonard gone, so we should learn quickly whether his hugely improved shooting and scoring can maintain when defenses are keying on him. I think he’ll make his first All-Star team. I also expect VanVleet to come up big for Toronto, considering his contract is expiring and he’s all about betting on himself. I expect him to seize the second guard and ultimately play more minutes than Kyle Lowry and get strong All-Defensive team consideration, especially if his wife has another good luck baby.

I’m also bullish on Bam Adebayo in Miami, who’s already a versatile defensive monster able to guard bigs and switch onto point guards with ease. With Hassan Whiteside and his $50,000 assault rifle gone to Portland, the center position is wide open for Bam to become a shot-erasing double-double machine. Butler replacing Dwyane Wade should help him get more good looks, and while so far he rarely shoots outside the key, Bam worked on his jumper all summer and if you rule out end-of-quarter heaves, he actually made 30 percent of his threes last season. Atlanta's John Collins is also poised to leave his dunk contest disaster behind and ascend to the upper echelon of Eastern Conference power forwards, thanks to a steady diet of high-altitude Trae Young lobs.

As for Beal, the Wizards will at least pretend they’re not trading him until at least 2020. Then they’ll realize Beal isn’t making All-NBA on a 25-win team and that they have $180 million worth of injured John Wall and very little else on the roster and flip him to the Celtics, when Danny Ainge finally decides to dip into his vault of young players and draft picks.


Raptors forward Pascal Siakam, guarded by Kevin Durant in last season's playoffs, signed a $130 million extension recently.  Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Keane: Do you have other sneaky breakout candidates I left out? And can anyone prevent a seemingly inevitable Sixers-Bucks conference finals?

Heery: And I thought I was bullish on Siakam! I recently wrote about how I thought Siakam, Trae Young and Jayson Tatum would enjoy Leap Years this season. Ice Trae's improvement in each quarter of his rookie season, culminating in a stat line of  25 points, nine assists and five rebounds per game over the last quarter of the season, makes me think he is poised for a De'Aaron Fox-like jump into All-Stardom. Likewise, I expect Tatum to start playing like the Tatum we saw average nearly 19 points per game as a rookie for Boston in the 2018 playoffs now that the Celtics have completed the process of De-Kobe-ing Tatum's game. 

If the rosters remained the same as they are now for the entire season, I'd say only injuries could prevent a Sixers-Bucks conference finals. However, nothing ever stays the same for very long in this league, so I'd say that if the Heat, Celtics or Raptors make an "all-in" type of trade (e.g., Chris Paul or Beal), they'd suddenly have enough talent to make the elites of the East a little nervous in the playoffs. 

Last question: When it's all said and done, who ends up being the beast of the East this season: Giannis or Embiid?

Keane: It's an epic battle between two wildly talented teams that have size, shooting and stifling defense. While I love the addition of Horford to the Sixers and I fully expect Ben Simmons to finally make a three-pointer, I think this is the Bucks' year. They're deeper than Philadelphia, they've learned a painful lesson from falling short against the Raptors, and as long as no animated Disney films are opening during the Eastern Conference Finals to distract the Lopez twins, I think Milwaukee breaks through. Giannis was humbled by Kawhi last season, but that will only make him hungrier and not just for classic American foods. Bucks in six.

Who you got?

Heery: Sixers in six. Get ready for a whole lot of angst coming out of Milwaukee next season.

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