NBA Western Conference preview: Lakers among seven powerhouses

Keane: I’m also picking Denver to finish with the West’s best record, because it is the deepest team. Maybe having solid backups at every position and 12 playable guys matters less in the playoffs, when rotations get shorter, but the Nuggets should get a huge boost during the regular season. Start with Nikola Jokic, last year’s first-team All-NBA center who doubles as the NBA’s thiccest point guard. He gets better every season, and I think he’ll finish with the most assists from a center in history this year. (Sorry, Wilt. ) That mile-high home-court advantage is real, although just like having three quality power forwards, it’s more of a regular-season bonus. But the Nuggets can withstand almost any injury. Every key player except Paul Millsap is under 30, and Michael Porter Jr. has tremendous upside, as a scorer and video game hustler.

I’m high on the Lakers, but I’m higher on their cross-hallway rivals, the Clippers. Anthony Davis and LeBron James are the best duo in the NBA, but Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are not that far behind. What makes the difference for me is the supporting cast; the Clippers return most of the same team that won 48 games last season. They have a variety of specialists: Patrick Beverley is a defensive ace who can knock down threes; Landry Shamet shot 42% from deep and played 29 minutes per game in the playoffs at age 21; and Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell are the best scoring bench combo in the league. Ivica Zubac is raw but plays solid defense at age 22, and Maurice Harkless? JaMychal Green? You could do a lot worse with your backup forwards!

Whom do the Lakers have around their two superstars? Danny Green is a great defender and knockdown shooter who should never be allowed to dribble more than three times in a row. JaVale McGee is a quality backup center who’s good for 15 minutes per game and 150 dunks a season. Kyle Kuzma averaged 18.7 points last season, but couldn’t make a three (30.7% shooting) or guard anyone (85th out of 100 power forwards in defensive plus minus), and now he’s injured. Boogie Cousins is out for the season, Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo are in serious decline, Jared Dudley is the NBA’s worst rebounding power forward, and Dwight Howard is Dwight Howard, a farting embarrassment who’s already washed out in Los Angeles once. 

Speaking of washing out in Los Angeles, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is somehow returning for a third go-round after two terrible seasons, which more than the Anthony Davis trade proves that Klutch Sports is far too powerful. LeBron will elevate the entire team, and I think AD will win the MVP, and I think that’s enough to get them past every team in the West -– except the Clippers.

Keane: So you like the Lakers best, but who do you least like among the West contenders? Who’s going to disappoint their fans, whose coach is going to get canned, and who’s blowing up their team?

Heery: Yes, love the Lake Show -- I mean, who couldn’t after they beat the brakes off of a Steph Curry-less Warriors team in their final preseason game (I’m only half-kidding, maybe). 

As to your questions, I think health will play a big part in figuring out which teams disappoint this season. That said, I think the Rockets are the most volatile team. Whether it’s the Mike D’Antoni lame-duck season, the Tilman Fertitta “Shut Up and Listen” owner’s mentality, or the idea that they’re going to play the two highest usage players IN THE HISTORY OF THE NBA (James Harden and Russell Westbrook) together, I could see them imploding and missing the playoffs ... or embracing a “nobody believes in us” mentality on their way to 55-60 wins. 

The next team I’m worried about is the Blazers because they have a pretty defined ceiling (4-5 seed) with their roster as currently constructed. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are good for 45-50 wins every season, and Hassan Whiteside is good for negative five wins every season, so we’re starting at 40-45 wins. Is that enough to get you into the playoffs in the West? Zach Collins and/or Anfernee Simons could make a leap this season, but how reliable is that? And who is guarding other teams’ best wings? Say what you will about Al-Farouq Aminu and Mo Harkless on offense, but at least Portland could depend on them to make the likes of LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George work hard for their points. 

Besides Mike D in Houston and maybe Terry Stotts in Portland, I don’t see an obvious coach on the hot seat as most teams either have an institution at that spot -- Gregg Popovich (Spurs), Steve Kerr (Warriors), Doc Rivers (Clippers), Rick Carlisle (Mavericks) -- a highly thought of coach in his prime -- Quin Snyder (Jazz), Michael Malone (Nuggets) -- or a first-year hire. That is, unless you see Jason Kidd making an all-too-predictable backstabbing of Frank Vogel in Year 1. (Vogel ain’t David Blatt though, so I don’t think he starts suffering from LeBron camp disdain until at least Year 2.) Oh, wait, I almost forgot the Kings exist -- they run through coaches faster than Vlade Divac burns through heaters -- so Luke Walton will almost certainly get fired this season. 

Heery: Outside of the obvious OKC blow-up, which teams do you have an eye on as rebuilders this season? And who is the team that surprises everyone and makes the playoffs? Is it Zion’s Pelicans or Karl-Anthony Towns' Wolves?

Keane: I share your worries about Portland. You can tell a team is in trouble when fans are talking themselves into the Mario Hezonja experience, although the Warriors’ enthusiasm for Marquese Chriss is also alarming. These are the rescue dogs of the NBA: They deserve another chance, you have to treat them with care, and they’re inevitably going to make a lot of messes on the court until they calm down.

The Grizzlies should be a thoroughly entertaining bad team as they try to avoid sending their first-rounder to Boston, and Phoenix will be not quite as terrible, but still very bad. Of teams that think they’re contenders, give me Dallas as a stealth rebuilder. They missed out on adding a third star to the Luka Doncic -Kristaps Porzingis duo, and an injury to either means the team is in serious trouble. And, as we saw last season when the Mavericks exiled Harrison Barnes to Sacramento to give themselves a chance to miss out on a max free agent again, Dallas is unafraid to detonate parts of their roster. It could tank hard in the final months of the season – the Mavs went 8-21 down the stretch last season. If they’re hovering around .500 in January, I think the Mavs will fold up the tent once again.

I was extremely high on the New Orleans Zions until I saw the news about his knee injury. The Pelicans are going to be cautious with him as a result, although I still think he'll win Rookie of the Year if he plays more than 50 games. It’s a blow to a team that has a lot of intriguing talent but probably needed everything to go right to make it into the playoffs. It does mean we will get a referendum on Brandon Ingram’s star potential earlier than we think, since he should get a lot more touches as the season begins and the Pelicans evaluate whether he’s a compatible long-term partner for Zion in advance of his free agency this summer.

Instead, I’m pushing my sleepers chips in on the Timberwolves, who everyone is sleeping on after last year’s nightmare season. An 0-5 West Coast trip during the Jimmy Butler hostage crisis doomed their season and proved that a team can hate a coach, or a star player, but not both if they’re going to compete. I’m intrigued by how much better their defense was after adding Robert Covington, particularly Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT makes an effort on defense, unlike another highly paid young Timberwolf, and he thrives when there’s a veteran like RoCo yelling out defensive instructions, and not a veteran yelling at him to stop playing video games, like Jimmy Butler. They’ve got a chance to be a decent defense with Covington healthy again, young wings Josh Okogie and Jarett Culver, and Jordan Bell replacing Anthony Tolliver, and a mediocre defense will get this team in the playoffs thanks to Towns’ otherworldly offense. What’s the key move that will get them there? Ignoring his giant contract and moving Andrew Wiggins out of the starting lineup, where his bucket-getting mentality makes more sense and improves the starters’ defense.

Keane: Besides the fast-rising young teams, which players do you see making the proverbial leap this season? Are we seeing new blood on the Western Conference All-Star team, besides the Board Man?

Heery: I'm right there with you on KAT -- I foresee an MVP Leap from him this season. I also believe Donovan Mitchell is ready to make an All-NBA kind of leap this season as the catalyst for what should be a legitimate contender in Utah and will take Klay Thompson's All-Star spot (the aforementioned Board Man will replace Kevin Durant). Besides that, it's going to be difficult for any newcomers to crash the All-Star party unless they're supplanting Russell Westbrook or LaMarcus Aldridge. 

If you told me Zion played 90 percent of his games the first half of the season, then he'll make the All-Star team. (Yes, he's that good, people.) There's about a dozen other players (De'Aaron Fox, Jrue Holiday, Draymond Green, CJ McCollum, Mike Conley, etc.) who could snag a spot if they played in the East, but the NBA refuses to change its rules to allow the 24 best players in the league to play in the All-Star Game. Instead, it pretends the two conferences are equal.

Heery: Last question: Who's the best head coach in this conference?

Keane: Steve Kerr has made five straight Finals and pissed off the president, Mike D'Antoni has two Coach of the Year awards and revolutionized NBA offense, and Doc Rivers has turned teams around in three different cities. But until he actually retires, the best head coach in this conference is still Gregg Popovich. I don't care what happened in the FIBA World Cup: When the Spurs stop making the playoffs every season and getting improbable performances from the likes of Bryn Forbes and Dejounte Murray, then we can talk about some other coach being the GOAT. As long as you don't count sideline interviews, Coach Pop still has it.