NBA Insider Predicts Keon Ellis' New Contract in Free Agency

However, if the Kings do not act, Ellis could potentially hit the free agency market. Ellis has a team option for the 2025-26 season, giving the team a few different options for how they want to approach his contract situation. One thing is clear, though: Keon Ellis will be a King for a long time.

The Athletic's John Hollinger labeled Ellis as the top shooting guard in free agency this offseason, putting him at the top of his "More than MLE but less than max" tier. Hollinger predicts that Ellis will sign for $24.7 million per year.

"Ellis is a valuable player on a cheapo contract for at least one more season, making just $2.3 million on the final year of his minimum deal. The Kings can extend his contract for up to four years and $85 million and absolutely should be looking at doing this given his 3-and-D profile. Even if Ellis overlaps some with Zach LaVine, an extended contract for him at $18 million to $20 million a pop should still have positive trade value. (Also, LaVine isn’t good enough to be driving long-term strategy for a non-contender.)

"One other option for the Kings would be to “decline-and-sign,” essentially throwing a bone to Ellis by declining his $2.3 million option for this year and turning it into a $14.5 million deal via early Bird rights, with a total package of four years and $65 million and a fourth-year player option. That could create a short-term tax issue for the Kings depending on some other roster choices, but long term, this is a much cleaner way to build the team over the coming seasons and removes some tax concerns in 2027 and 2028," Hollinger wrote.

Ellis has a more interesting contract situation than most, but it gives the Kings some flexibility this offseason, while the young guard is still certain to get paid what he deserves. Of course, the Kings do not want Ellis to hit the open market, so as long as they play his situation correctly this offseason, he should be staying in Sacramento for at least the next four to five years.

Regardless of his situation, it is a great sign for Hollinger to be ranking Ellis as his top free agent shooting guard. Of course, it is a concerningly weak free agency class, but Keon Ellis' recognition is well deserved.

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