NBA Over/Unders: Are Blazers built to clear projected 34.5 wins?

NBA insider and former Grizzlies front-office man John Hollinger of The Athletic isn’t sold on the Trail Blazers hitting their projected win total of 34.5 this season.

On the surface, it looks doable. Portland won 36 games last year and closed strong, going 23-18 in the second half. But Hollinger points out two big issues — the Blazers actually overachieved relative to their numbers, and they lost key offensive pieces without much in the way of replacements.

For starters, Portland finished 22nd in net rating last year, the kind of differential that usually adds up to just 33 wins. More importantly, Hollinger notes, the Blazers traded away Anfernee Simons (to Boston for Jrue Holiday) and bought out Deandre Ayton, leaving major scoring holes behind.

Simons had his flaws, but he was Portland’s best offensive player. Ayton was inconsistent, but he still scored at a high rate and finished 59.4 percent on twos. With both gone, Hollinger wonders how the points will come.

The Blazers are also now leaning heavily on Scoot Henderson, who has yet to show he can handle that kind of role. Holiday, at 34, played a reduced role last year and is unlikely to step in as a full-time point guard.

As for a go-to option? Hollinger says it’s Deni Avdija — a player who was solid last year but, in his view, looks like the least-talented No. 1 option in the Western Conference. Shaedon Sharpe offers some upside, but he’s still more promise than production.

Portland did use its midlevel exception on Damian Lillard, who is injured and won’t be helping anytime soon.

Hollinger’s conclusion: the Blazers are young, they’ll play hard and defend, but in a loaded Western Conference, that may not be nearly enough to clear the 34.5 line.

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