Oklahoma City Thunder 2025-26 season predictions after NBA schedule release

The Thunder went 68-14 last season. Some experts believed that Daigneault had a chance to lead his team to 70 wins. However, Oklahoma City fell just short of that mark. The team finished with 92 total wins, counting their playoff victories. Unfortunately, that kind of dominance is unlike to happen again. The Western Conference did a lot of work to close the gap this summer.

The Thunder open their season against the new and improved Houston Rockets. Kevin Durant even took shots at Oklahoma City fans after the matchup was revealed. The Rockets figure to be the Thunder’s biggest threat in the Western Conference. However, their regression could be a direct result of an improved division. Specifically, the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finally beat out Nikola Jokic for MVP honors . How did the Nuggets respond? By adding Cameron Johnson and filling out their bench. Denver is a more difficult matchup for everyone in the league now. The Timberwolves, however, are a threat because of Anthony Edwards. Improvement from the young star is bad news for the Thunder’s record.

Playoff Floor/Ceiling: 2nd Round Exit/Champions

The Thunder’s run through the Western Conference playoffs was a roller coaster. They cruised through the first round against the Memphis Grizzlies. However, Jokic and the Nuggets took the Thunder to a Game 7 one round later. The Timberwolves didn’t provide much of a challenge, and then the Pacers came within one game of a title. That is how unpredictable the playoffs can be.

Oklahoma City simply has too much talent to fall short of the second round, no matter how good the West is. Holmgren and Williams are perennial candidates to join Gilgeous-Alexander in the All-Star Game if they are healthy. Should the Thunder have another dominant season, they could be the next trio of teammates to get there, matching the Cleveland Cavaliers from 2024.

If the Thunder maintain health, a majority of their roster should only get better. If last year’s team won the title, there is no reason to set their ceiling any lower. If it does happen, Oklahoma City would be the first back-to-back champions since the Golden State Warriors. However unlikely, some have declared the Thunder the NBA’s next great dynasty.

Award Predictions: Holmgren wins DPOY

Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander both made All-NBA teams last season. The All-NBA Defensive teams featured Williams and Lu Dort. However, no player in Thunder or Seattle Supersonics history has won Defensive Player of the Year except Gary Payton in 1995-96. This year, that changes because of Holmgren. A fully healthy season from the big man has him among the favorites.

Holmgren missed more than half of the season with a hip injury last year. When he played, though, he was a defensive force. He blocks 2.3 shots per game on his career, an outrageous number. Daigneault has another summoer to work with him on that end and further hone his defensive skills. He makes the league’s best defense that much more intimidating.

San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama will be the favorite to win DPOY for the next decade. However, the All-Star has yet to play a complete season. In his rookie campaign, Holmgren did not miss a single game. If he stays on the floor, there is no reason to expect the former Gonzaga star to not be on the award’s final ballot at the end of the season.