Pacers are literally defying the odds

Their 116-107 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 of the NBA Finals was the 13th time the Pacers have been an underdog in a playoff game this year and the ninth time they've gone on to win the game anyway. Indiana is 14-5 in the playoffs overall, yet it has only been favored in five games. 

Three of those were in Indiana's first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks. In the last three rounds of the NBA playoffs, the Pacers have gone 10-4 and been favored to win exactly twice in those 14 games. 

If you'd simply bet on the Pacers to win every playoff game, it would be the best return on investment since Indiana got Andrew Nembhard with the first pick of the second round in the 2022 draft.

The Pacers were big underdogs against the Cleveland Cavaliers (+425), slight underdogs against the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals (+135) and huge underdogs facing the Thunder (+500) in the NBA Finals. The Thunder are still favored to win the Finals even with the Pacers up 2-1, but the Pacers won their other series emphatically.

Why are the Pacers bucking the odds? Part of it is that the team seems undaunted by opposing crowds. The Pacers are 7-3 on the road during the playoffs, taking the first two games on the road against both the Cavaliers and Knicks. Perhaps it helped that all of those opposing crowds were silenced by a last-second Tyrese Haliburton shot in the final seconds.

It's also a sign that the Pacers have flown under everyone's radar, including the oddsmakers. 

While the Thunder and Cavaliers were racking up big win totals and the defending champion Boston Celtics were no slouches with 61 wins, the 50-win Pacers were disregarded after a slow 9-14 start despite having gone to the conference finals a year earlier. After the New Year, Indiana went 34-14 to close the regular season.

Not coincidentally, January is also when the Pacers got Aaron Nesmith back from injury. They also had Nembhard fully healthy from a November knee injury, after which the Pacers went 5-10. Now, the Pacers have played like an elite team for months, but it seems no one quite believes it. Except the Pacers.

Considering how the playoffs have gone so far, the Pacers got good news about Game 4. Oklahoma City is favored by six points.