Philadelphia 76ers vs. Phoenix Suns odds & best bet

This is a possible NBA Finals preview, and if we get it, it would be a good one. 

I may not be particularly sold on James Harden as a 76er but they have only lost 3 times with him in uniform. That is 10-3 SU and his numbers reflect that he has been a big part of that success. I still worry about their ability to play playoff quality defense when it matters. Philly is just .500 ATS with Harden, so even though the team has been winning the market has been expecting more. 

It is hard to expect more from the Suns though. Phoenix is leading the NBA and have already clinched a playoff spot. With a nine-game lead over Memphis in the Western Conference, it won't be long until they lock down the top playoff seed and that has been with All-Star point guard Chris Paul missing a month before getting back on the court in their last game at Denver. The Suns have won eight in a row and now that they have Paul back are likely motivated to play well in this statement game against a fellow title contender.  

Game Info

Philadelphia 76ers (46-27) vs. Phoenix Suns (60-14)
Sunday, March 27, 2022
6:00 PM ET
Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Bally Sports Arizona

Betting Odds

Spread: 76ers +4.5 (-110), Suns -4.5 (-110)
Total: 233
Moneyline: 76ers +200, Suns -155

Best Bet

Phoenix -4.5

These teams met in early February with Phoenix winning in Philly by five points. It was a rare case of the Suns being an underdog this season but with venue shifting to Phoenix, we now need the Suns to win by at least 5 again. At home, with this Suns team, that is pretty good value.

The Suns match up well with everyone but especially with the 76ers. In Deandre Ayton, they have a center who can make Embiid work at both ends of the floor and Mikal Bridges is probably the best perimeter defender in the league. He should be able to lock up James Harden. While Harden will probably still get his points, his efficiency is likely to suffer. The 76ers need to win at those positions by a wide margin and when they don't it is hard for them to really compete with the best teams in the league, like Phoenix. 

The Suns might have given up 130 points at Denver but the 140 they scored matched a season high. I don't think that was an accident with Paul back in the lineup. With him back, the offense just gets a little bit easier for everyone on the team as everyone gets back to their most comfortable roles. The strength of this team is not just elite players like Paul and Devin Booker, but role players like Cam Payne and JaVale McGee, who eat up second unit players from other teams, often expanding leads. 

Phoenix is 30-8 SU at home this season. They are just 18-20 ATS at the Footprint Center even though they are often winning by a fair margin. As the best team in the league, there are so many games where they are expected to win by a lot. They have always been good at managing minutes and that often means that games they are winning by 17 points finish with 11-point margins. 

On Sunday, look for a game that should be tighter, which is where the Suns really excel. In March they have had 4 games where the spread was less than 5 points. They are 3-1 SUATS in those contests. Look for Phoenix to add another win to that record.