Predicting Every Rockets Player's Points Per Game Next Season

The Houston Rockets have shifted into high gear this offseason, taking the jump from rebuild to championship contender. In a franchise-altering move, GM Rafael Stone orchestrated a record-breaking, seven-team trade to bring Kevin Durant to Houston, sacrificing Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and draft capital (2025 No. 10 overall pick included) in the process.

Pairing Durant's elite scoring prowess, he averaged 26.6 points per game on 52.7% shooting last season, including a refined three-point stroke. Ime Udoka’s disciplined, defensive-minded system instantly transforms the Rockets’ offensive structure. Behind this bold centerpiece addition, Houston also fortified its core by signing Dorian Finney-Smith, veteran center Clint Capela, and defensive glue Josh Okogie, while locking in key pieces like Fred VanVleet, Steven Adams, Jabari Smith Jr., and extending Udoka himself.

In this deep and versatile roster, distributing offensive responsibilities will be as critical as the talent on paper suggests. The Rockets are lauded as possibly the NBA’s deepest team, with Durant now the main man. 

Armed with talents such as Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, VanVleet, Smith Jr., Tari Eason, and Reed Sheppard, how will their scoring be distributed? We know what to expect from the Rockets defensively, but let's dive into what average each player could put up in 2025-26.

Kevin Durant - 26.7 PPG

Kevin Durant averaged 26.6 points per game in 62 appearances with the Phoenix Suns before a late-season ankle injury curtailed his campaign. Still among the league's elite scorers, Durant’s efficiency and scoring acumen remain elite, earning him All-Star honors despite injuries.

As Houston’s primary offensive weapon and new go-to scorer, Durant is expected to see usage spike. Even at nearly age 37, his ability to create and score in isolation, paired with spacing provided by shooters, should keep him around the 26 PPG mark at a minimum. We estimate a 26.7 PPG average next season, potentially higher if backcourt shooting fades or Durant stays healthy.

Alperen Sengun - 18.9 PPG

Sengun had his first All-Star season in 2024-25 (19.1 PPG) and signed a five-year extension. He delivered multiple triple-doubles, consistent double-doubles, and finished among league leaders in rebounding (8th) and finished 5th in two-point field goals (546).

As a focal point inside, Sengun will continue facilitating and scoring through the paint. With Capela and Adams patrolling alongside, his offensive opportunities may be slightly tapered, but with his developing passing, he should continue producing efficiently. We predict Sengun dropping 18.9 PPG as the team's second option, and he should benefit most from Durant's presence on the perimeter.

Amen Thompson - 16.1 PPG

Amen Thompson had a breakout sophomore season last year, averaging 14.1 PPG, with 8.2 boards, 3.8 assists, and elite defense. We know he is on the path to superstardom, but it might not happen as soon as next season. He will take a leap, however, and boost his scoring as the team's third option.

Increased minutes and a more prominent offensive role next to Durant and VanVleet will likely elevate Thompson’s scoring. Though his shooting consistency remains a question, his cutting and transition abilities remain elite. We expect 16.1 PPG, weighted toward his strengths in driving and finishing.

Jabari Smith Jr. - 14.8 PPG

Smith averaged 12.2 PPG and shot solidly from three (.354) in 2024-25. With spacing opening up for him alongside Durant, Smith’s shot volume should climb enough that he sees a boost in his scoring.

Not to mention, Smith just signed a $120 million deal and will feel comfortable that the Rockets have committed to him. His mid-range and three-point shooting will be a key aspect of the offense, as a result, and he should have a better season compared to last. A fair projection is 14.9 PPG as the fourth option.

Fred VanVleet - 12.3 PPG

VanVleet averaged 14.1 PPG and 5.6 assists last season but posted sub-40% shooting. His role was as a veteran point, a role Durant now fills offensively. Fred now has to focus on playmaking, moving the ball, and providing steady leadership.

As a result, VanVleet will likely shift to more of a facilitator and defensive veteran, ceding scoring to Durant and the wings. Expect his offensive output to dip to 12.3 PPG, depending on his 3-point efficiency and how Udoka deploys him late in games. What will be key for VanVleet is his playmaking, which will be sorely needed.

Tari Eason - 11.5 PPG

Eason played meaningful bench minutes and is extension-eligible. His scoring last season was modest last season, 12.0 PPG, but he should see a slight dip due to the presence of Kevin Durant. Still, his impact won't be ignored when coming off the bench.

With more rotational opportunity against backups and small-lineup usage, Eason may offer energy and slashing scoring, leading to an estimated 11.5 PPG. It could be lower or might even be higher, but we don't expect Eason to put up monster scoring numbers.

Reed Sheppard - 9.1 PPG

Rookie Reed Sheppard averaged 4.4 PPG in limited minutes (12.6 MPG). He’s poised to have a growth role next season, and the Rockets really believe he can reach that next level and take over the starting point guard spot someday. It won't happen next season, but he will see a boost in his scoring numbers. 

Projected to be the second guard behind VanVleet and competing with Aaron Holiday, Sheppard may see 20 MPG. His shooting could translate to 9.1 PPG, since he is the best pure shooter on the team outside of Kevin Durant. 

Dorian Finney-Smith - 7.3 PPG

Finney-Smith averaged 8.7 PPG on 41.1% from three last season, and brings defensive versatility with his new team. As a 3-and-D wing, his scoring will come in spot minutes in spread lineups, but enough to keep defenses honest.

A safe estimate is 7.3 PPG, because his offense will come from open shots from deep. Finney-Smith's role will need to be focused on defending the perimeter, hustling for loose balls, and grabbing rebounds more than scoring.

Aaron Holiday - 5.6 PPG

Holiday was re-signed on a veteran minimum and expected to provide depth. His actual scoring last season was limited. As the third guard off the bench, he may see 8-12 MPG, translating to 5.4 PPG. Last season, Holiday posted 5.5 PPG on 39.8% from deep.

The Rockets needed more options behind VanVleet and Sheppard, and Holiday fits that mold as a veteran who is another excellent on-ball defender. It will be interesting to see how Holiday performs in limited spurts when his number gets called.

Steven Adams - 5.5 PPG

The Rockets made it a priority to re-sign Steven Adams this offseason after he caused complete chaos for the smaller Warriors in the first round of the playoffs. He won't score, but will be a beast on the boards and in the paint.

Adams will need to stay healthy, dominate inside, and act as Alperen Sengun's twin-tower pairing depending on the matchups. Adams will also have to compete with Clint Capela at the center spot, which is great for Ime Udoka.

Clint Capela - 5.5 PPG

Capela was signed on a three-year deal for his rebounding and interior presence. His scoring last season wasn't specified. As a backup to Sengun and Adams, Capela will likely yield limited scoring but with efficiency near the rim, projected 5.5 PPG.

If Sengun gets traded in a major blockbuster deal to bring in a superstar mid-season, Capela will be there to safeguard the center spot. If not, Capela's presence will be insurance for Steven Adams in case the big deals with injuries.

Josh Okogie - 4.3 PPG

Josh Okogie was brought in to shore up the bench, defend hellaciously, and hustle for loose balls. He won't score much, will be forgotten at times, and will stay out of the spotlight, but he makes winning plays.

Okogie could be a solid member of Udoka's rotation as a result, because he makes the right plays more often than not. Expect Okogie to score 4.3 PPG at the most without too many field-goal attempts.

Jae'Sean Tate - 4.1 PPG

Jae'Sean Tate is a perfect bench player because he always plays hard, attacks the rim with force, and knows his role. Tate won't score much, similar to last year, but he will know what his capability will need to be.

Jeff Green - 3.3 PPG

Jeff Green is the ultimate veteran for the Rockets and will be used sparingly. His job will be to be an assistant coach for the team, guide the younger players, and spark memories with Kevin Durant. Uncle Jeff should chip in around 3.3 PPG as well.