Projecting the Knicks' Hypothetical Expansion Draft Protections

After several years of fielding a top-heavy roster, they're finally getting somewhere in established a fleshed-out rotation. Longtime hustler Mitchell Robinson, revitalized veteran Landry Shamet and newly-acquired irritant Jose Alvarado now line head coach Mike Brown's bench options, and that's to say nothing of developing contributors like Mohamed Diawara and Tyler Kolek. But in the event of an expansion draft, the Knicks wouldn't be able to protect all of their guys.

In the past, such drafts have allowed franchises to shield eight players of their choosing from getting plucked away by a rookie organization. Even though such tough decisions still remain theoretical amidst Silver's negotiating process, it's worth walking through how the Knicks should approach the protection process.

Tier One: No-Brainers

Assuming the agreement between Silver, the league's owners and outside interested parties goes through, the earliest that Las Vegas and Seattle can join the bigs would be before the 2027-28 season, giving the NBA a full year to game-plan a transition.

Near-future contracts will unquestionably come into play. But even if he weren't on one of the best bargain deals in the sport, Jalen Brunson is a must-keep. He's the face of New York basketball and the leading scorer of a star who's helped lead the Knicks back from the dead and into a perennial contending threat, making him the most obvious protection candidate on the roster by a considerable margin.

He, as well as OG Anunoby, make for the clear-cut first choices of this thought experiment. Anunoby may not be on the same Hall of Fame track as Brunson, but considering how much he pushes winning forward between his dogged perimeter defense from the wings and offensive play-finishing as a critical big-game floor-spacer. His own contract, which averages out to a manageable $42.5 million over the next three seasons, isn't worth dangling in the faces of outsiders.

Tier Two: Toss-Ups

This is where contractual situations and estimations complicate a lot more cases.

Karl-Anthony Towns, for one, has already watched as red flags raise amidst his hunt for an extension. Conversations about his security will reach a breaking point right around when such an expansion draft would take place two summers from now, when he'll have to decide whether to pick up his player option should he continue to go un-signed heading into the 2030s.

Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart, meanwhile, appear safer than their star center. Bridges, for one, just signed a meaty four-year, $150 million extension a few months ago, while beloved Knicks fixture Hart has a team option that takes him through that 2027-28 season, putting the rest of his deal along the same timeline as Towns.

Handy role players in Robinson and Miles McBride, the two lone home-grown pieces within the Knicks' trusted rotation, would each be valuable to still have by that point, but it's impossible to know how the secretive squad will handle the pair of helpful contracts over the coming months.

Robinson's been noisier about desiring additional security, and while the Knicks bench would crater without the premier offensive rebounder and rim-protecter, losing out on McBride's own perimeter defense and shooting stroke would similarly hurt. The center could test free agency as quickly as this coming summer, while McBride, set to earn just $8.2 million over the next two seasons, is deserving of considerably more money compared to his teammates.

Tier Three: Fringe Candidates

Other veterans would mean less to the city and the organization should they depart New York in the event of an expansion, but they'd still hurt.

Shamet, for one, has made for one of the best pickups of the Brunson era, looking as good as he ever has as both an outside assassin and an effort-filled defender. Who's to say what the future holds for Alvarado, who just joined the team last week upon the Knicks' most recent trade. He's yet to play multiple games with his newest crew, and has a player option of his own to decide on in the coming months. For now, he'll fill in for the injured McBride and the benched Jordan Clarkson, who's proven redundant among New York's arsenal of efficient shooters and preferable defenders.

And while the Knicks' "young core" looks low on impact from a distance, those who've been watching have watched one-time deep-cut draftee Diawara make the most of his rookie reps. He's becoming just the depth piece that Brown's needed along the wings, impressing many onlooking New Yorkers as he seamlessly fits into the team-wide contending goal.

Kolek's provided occasional flashes of inspiring playmaking and point guard play, but reliability issues on both ends of the floor continue holding him back from completely winning Brown over. And as short as his leash can feel at times, he's still received considerable more burn than Ariel Hukporti, Kevin McCullar Jr. and, particularly, Pacome Dadiet, the lone first-round pick of the bunch with less big league experience than anyone else mentioned.

Final Decisions and Toughest Omissions

If Silver and his expansion committee knocked on the Knicks' door looking to know which eight players should go untouchable in the upcoming draft of currently-rostered players, I'd advise that they choose to protect Brunson, Anunoby, Bridges, Hart, Robinson, McBride, Diawara and Alvarado.

Towns is the most glaring cut of the bunch, but I believe that the Knicks would be best off by using this opportunity as a "get out jail free" card considering the hefty extension he'll be expecting. Such a conversation wouldn't be fun, but he probably won't be getting any better as a defender in trooping into his early-30s, and sporadic stretches of play are already proving to test New York management judging by the onslaught of trade rumors that have clouded recent months.

Shamet and Alvarado are of relatively-equivalent value, but I value the latter just a little bit more in considering what the Knicks are trying to build over the long-term. He's about as feisty as undersized defenders come and an intriguing spacer, while Shamet, a touch older with considerably more playoff experience on his resume and previous NBA jerseys in his closet, has less consistency to his name when we compare his specialty, shooting, to Alvarado's defense.

Any of Kolek, Dadiet or any of their young teammates have chances to take that eighth spot depending on how they continue developing. The rest of that aforementioned protected core is just what the Knicks already need and will continue requiring in building around a little superstar like Brunson -- length, defense and enough shooting to keep defenses from shrinking the floor.

Should they find ways to pull off the impressive and keep both Robinson and McBride, this dwindled-version of the Knicks' current rotation should continue right on as an eastern player well after Seattle or Las Vegas pick through their options.