Ranking Warriors Players by Likeliness of Getting Traded

The Golden State Warriors will be making at least one trade before the Feb. 5 trade deadline. That much is sure.

So who will they trade? I ranked the players from least likely to most likely below.

I included all 15 players on standards contracts and Pat Spencer. Note that even within tiers, I followed the "least likely to most likely to be traded" guideline. So for example, Spencer is 14th-most likely to be dealt and Will Richard is 13th-most likely, and so on.

Can't Get Traded: Seth Curry

Curry signed his contract so late into the season that his trade restriction doesn't lift until after the Feb. 5 trade deadline.

Won't Get Traded: Stephen Curry

Even if the next few weeks are a disastrous combination of losses and injuries, the Warriors won't be trading Curry unless he demands it. He's perhaps the most popular athlete in Bay Area history.

Would Be Very Surprising If Dealt: Spencer, Richard, Post, Melton

Pat Spencer doesn't have a standard contract yet, so if the Warriors traded him, they'd do so on his two-way contract, which would count as no outgoing salary.

Will Richard ($1.3 million) and Quinten Post ($2.0 million) are too important to be salary throw-ins and are making so little that they would not work as money matchers for most trades.

In the "very surprising if dealt" tier, De'Anthony Melton ($3.1 million) is slightly more likely to get traded than the rest because he makes the most money for salary matching. And if the Warriors become sellers, they'd have to consider dealing him because he's likely to be a free agent next offseason.

Unlikely But Don't Rule It Out: Butler, Green

Jimmy Butler is making $54.1 million this season and $56.8 million next season. The Warriors are unlikely to consider trading him unless it's for Giannis Antetokounmpo.

However, if things go very south very quickly, the Warriors could look to sell, and then all bets are off. I called it "unlikely" for a reason.

In this tier, Green is more likely to be dealt because he makes considerably less ($25.9 million) and there's more of an on-court argument to do so. The 35-year-old power forward is having one of the worst offensive seasons in his career, which makes you wonder if he's in an age-related decline.

With that said, Green seems to have a great relationship with Joe Lacob and Steve Kerr. They both might treat trading Green as a last resort.

Implicit No-Trade Clause: Gary Payton II

Payton has an implicit no-trade clause, which means he can veto any trade. It's hard to know if he'd threaten to use it and thus force the Warriors to use another player for salary-matching purposes.

If he didn't have an implicit no-trade clause, he'd be in the top five of this article. The Warriors have less need for him with Melton healthy.

Throw-Ins with Cheap Contracts for Salary Matching: Santos, Jackson-Davis

If the Warriors need to include up to $2.2 million more to complete a trade, you can guess they will choose one of Payton, Gui Santos or Trayce Jackson-Davis to do so.

Santos has the most value of the three, so rival teams could demand that he be included. But usually teams aren't demanding anything with the throw-in contracts in trades, so with that in mind, Jackson-Davis is slighlty more likely to be dealt because he has less value to the Warriors.

Top 5 Most Likely to Be Traded

5. Brandin Podziemski

Podz makes just $3.7 million this season and $5.7 million next season. He's too good to be viewed as a throw-in, and he's just good enough to be considered an asset in a return package.

Podz might have been in the top three of this article if not for his recent stretch of play. He's shooting 44 percent from three in his last 10 games. He's now the team's third-leading scorer (12.3 PPG), which is both a reason to keep Podz and aggressively search for another scorer.

I suspect the Warriors will not trade Podz unless they are getting a major wing or center upgrade. In other words, he'd probably be on the table as part of a package for Trey Murphy III, Ivica Zubac, Michael Porter Jr. or Myles Turner, but that's about it.

4. Al Horford

Horford has had a brutal season, which has lowered his already-low trade value. With that said, I'm guessing at least one contender would love to have Horford as a reserve big.

So what could happen is the Warriors use Horford's $5.7 million salary to make the money work in a big trade, and then the acquiring team reroutes Horford to a contender for a second-round pick.

3. Moses Moody

In a perfect world, the Warriors will acquire two players before the deadline. One will be a dynamic wing, and the other will be a big who shares most of the center minutes with Post.

If the Warriors can accomplish this in one trade, that would be great. But it's more likely it will be two separate trades with Jonathan Kuminga as the centerpiece of one and Moody as the centerpiece of the other.

Moody is in the first year of a three-year, $37.5 million contract. When he's knocking down his threes, that contract is a huge bargain.

Rebuilding teams should find the 23-year-old three-and-D wing attractive.

2. Buddy Hield

Evan Sidery of Forbes reported that the Warriors are canvassing the trade market for Hield.

His $9.2 million salary is a great salary matcher for a lot of trades. And only $3 million of his 2026-27 salary is guaranteed, so an acquiring team can clear future cap space by dealing for him.

1. Jonathan Kuminga

Kuminga is the Warriors' most intriguing trade chip due as much to the structure of his contract as his potential to pop in a different environment.

Kuminga makes $22.5 million this season and has a team option for $24.3 million next season. An acquiring team can essentially give Kuminga a three-month tryout before deciding what to do with that option. Ideally, he plays so well that it's obvious they pick it up. But if he struggles, then they can decline the option and have more cap space.

There's little doubt Kuminga will be traded. The question is can the Warriors use Kuminga and draft capital to get a major upgrade, or will the trade market be so dry that they have to settle on a minor upgrade. We'll likely find out soon after Kuminga is first eligible to be traded on Jan. 15.

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