Raptors’ Kawhi Leonard reunion comes with $613K warning

Toronto could make a dramatic swing for Kawhi Leonard, but the financial downside could grow quickly whenever he cannot take the floor.

A Casino.org analysis labeled the hypothetical acquisition the riskiest transaction of the NBA offseason. Its model projects Leonard to play 59.5 games, leaving 22.5 absences across the season. Those missed contests would attach $13.8 million in unavailable salary to Toronto’s books, equal to $613,000 for each game he sits.

The proposed framework would send Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, two first-round selections, one first-round swap and two second-rounders out of Toronto. The Raptors would also increase their yearly payroll by about $5.3 million.

Leonard still provides substantial projected value. Casino.org estimates he would raise Toronto’s net performance by 5.6 points per game and help generate 5.1 extra victories through the opening 30 contests. That works out to approximately $1.04 million in new payroll for every projected win.

Philadelphia comparison magnifies Toronto’s risk

Casino.org used Philadelphia’s deal for Jaylen Brown to illustrate the difference. Brown projects to add 8.1 wins while increasing the 76ers’ payroll by roughly $3.4 million, creating a price of about $420,000 per added victory.

Toronto would consequently spend almost two and a half times as much for each projected win while receiving 63% of Philadelphia’s expected on-court boost. The Raptors would pay 56% more in added salary for 37% less improvement.

The study still forecasts a positive return for Toronto in the short term. The concern comes from how much the team would stake on Leonard’s availability. His age, injury record, contract circumstances and Toronto’s massive outgoing package pushed this proposal atop the study’s buyer’s-remorse rankings.