Reassessing NBA championship favorites with conference semifinals underway

Two weeks into the NBA playoffs and seven of the eight tickets to the conference semifinals are punched.

The Lakers became team No. 7 to advance when they demolished the Memphis Grizzlies, 125-85, on Friday night. One spot remains open, and it will go to either No. 3 Sacramento or No. 6 Golden State. 

A Warriors win would be historic. If they win, for the first time in NBA history all numbered seeds would be represented in the second round.

The Nos. 1, 4, 6 and 7 would advance in the West, while the East already has seeds Nos. 2, 3, 5 and 8 advancing.

While it would be convenient to simply rate the teams' likelihood of winning the NBA title based on their seeding, it isn't that easy. Per OddsChecker, there's a clear favorite to win it all, and it isn't the top remaining seed in the playoffs.

NBA championship odds, best to worst

(Odds provided by OddsChecker as of 9:30 a.m. CST on Apr. 29, 2023)

No. 2 Boston Celtics (+180)

Boston remains the favorite despite having difficulty putting away the Hawks in the first round. The Celtics gave away Game 5 after leading by double digits in the fourth quarter before ending the series in six games. Boston had the best net rating (6.7) in the regular season. 

No. 4 Phoenix Suns (+400)

The Suns had the good fortune of avoiding Kawhi Leonard and Paul George for the majority of the first round, but Phoenix is better than it is lucky. The Kevin Durant trade re-energized the team, and Devin Booker is playing at an All-NBA level. The Suns have the second-best odds, but they're playing like the favorite.

No. 1 Denver Nuggets (+800)

Finally, at full strength, Denver has its strongest chance of winning a title in some time. Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has running mates Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury. For the Nuggets to advance, they'll need more consistency from their Big Three, however. Per data from NBA.com, the three-man rotation of Jokic, Murray and Porter Jr., had a net rating of plus-one in the first round. The team's most effective first-round units featured backups Jeff Green, Bruce Brown and Christian Braun.

No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers (+800)

A right knee sprain forced likely 2023 MVP Joel Embiid to miss the close-out game in Philadelphia's series against the Nets, but he'll have 10 days off between his most recent appearance and the first game of the conference semifinals at Boston. The 76ers' championship hopes are directly tied to the health of their star center. 

No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers (+1000)

The Lakers are hitting their stride but have an arduous journey to winning a title. First, Los Angeles has to get past either Golden State or Sacramento in the next round, then face Denver or Phoenix in the West finals before it gets a chance in the NBA finals. Still, there aren't many teams playing on the Lakers' level. They are the best defensive team remaining in the West and lead the NBA with 9.2 blocks per game in the first round. Anthony Davis leads all players with an absurd 4.3 blocks per game.

No. 6 Golden State Warriors (+1200)

Golden State is the only remaining team with a championship pedigree and will rely on that experience to make an improbable run to the finals. Stephen Curry always gives them a shot, but the Warriors have been shockingly inconsistent all season. They'll have to get over their road woes and defensive lapses to go back-to-back.

No. 5 New York Knicks (+2200)

New York rode the best defense of the first round in its surprisingly easy win over Cleveland. The Knicks had a defensive rating of 101.9 in the five-game series and lead the NBA with 10 steals per game in the first round.

No. 8 Miami Heat (+4000)

Among the great matchups in Round 2, the Knicks defense against Jimmy Butler and the Heat has to be among the greatest. Butler was unreal in Miami's unpredictable first-round series win against the Bucks. He leads the NBA with 37.6 points per game in the postseason and is shooting a blistering 59.7 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from three.

No. 3 Sacramento Kings (+4500)

Oddsmakers aren't showing any love to the Kings, who are anticipated to fall in Round 1 despite proving to be a worthy adversary to the Warriors. If Sacramento does advance, it will need to get back to its regular-season shooting form. The Kings had the second-best field-goal percentage in the regular season (49.4 percent) but have the third-worst shooting percentage in the playoffs at 43.8 percent.