Rockets Given Shocking Record in Recent Standings Projections

Many fans and analysts expect the Houston Rockets to finish similarly in 2026 as they did in 2025. They have most of their main pieces returning, along with key upgrades, highlighted by Kevin Durant, of course.

Now, the Rockets have a great balance of defense and shot creation, which should ultimately make them a title contender. The trio of Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson creates a steady flow on the offensive end, while keeping most of the defensive intensity on the other end.

Houston will have to play the season with Fred VanVleet, but that shouldn't shoot them back in the standings too far, right? The Athletic's John Hollinger recently put out Western Conference standings predictions, and the Rockets' spot came earlier in the list than expected.

Houston was projected to finish the regular season 45-37, which would be the eighth seed. The team was placed one spot behind the San Antonio Spurs (46-36) and one spot above the Dallas Mavericks (41-41). VanVleet's injury was cited as a significant factor in why the Rockets may not reach 50 wins for the second consecutive season.

"How, exactly, does this work? Especially now that the one good guard on the roster, Fred VanVleet, is out for the season with a torn ACL?" Hollinger wrote.

"On paper, the Rockets also only have two guards besides Thompson, and one of them will have to play heavy minutes with the second group at the very least. That brings up another key question: Can Reed Sheppard play?"

"I’m less bullish on this team than some, and they definitely overdid it on frontcourt additions that left them high and dry in the backcourt when VanVleet got hurt. Still: If they can pull off one more big trade, watch out."

Even with the VanVleet injury and Houston's thin guard room, the Rockets are certainly more proven than the Spurs, and have a similar amount of youth within the core. Durant, while having played for a disappointing Phoenix Suns team, was way more of a positive for them than a negative.

Last season, Phoenix went 3-17 when Durant wasn't on the floor. In Houston, he'll bring that same impact, but have more of an identity around him with a defensive-oriented rotation.

With a major playmaker in Sengun as his costar, there should still be plenty of facilitation in the offense, even if VanVleet is out. The Rockets can also make moves midseason if things aren't working.