Rockets Given Third-Best Chance of Winning Title

The Houston Rockets entered the 2025-26 season with high hopes and expectations. Rightfully so, as they had just climbed to second in the Western Conference in just the second season of Ime Udoka's tenure as Rockets coach, posting a 52-30 record.

The Rockets nabbed their long-coveted superstar in Kevin Durant, who is easily one of the greatest players in the history of the sport. In addition, Houston added Dorian Finney-Smith, a 3-and-D wing who Houston hoped would help counter the loss of Dillon Brooks. 

And the Rockets went all-in on their approach of outrebounding opponents and towering over opponents with size, adding Clint Capela.

Fast forward a quarter of the way into the season and the team sits 16-7, good for fifth in the Western Conference. 

However, the early returns on Houston's offseason additions have been rather mixed.

Finney-Smith has yet to take the court, although he is nearing a return to the court. 

Capela has been a disappointment. Especially when compared to his younger self. Capela has developed hands of stone and his mobility is significantly reduced.

Udoka has trotted out Capela in the double-big lineups alongside Alperen Sengun and it's been disastrous.

Durant has been his usual self, averaging 24.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, four assists, nearly two stocks, 50.1 percent from the field, 40.4 percent from long-range, 89.1 percent from the foul line, 55.4 percent effective shooting and 62.1 percent true shooting.

His defensive skills have been immensely underrated. In Monday's game against the Denver Nuggets, he had five blocks. The more impressive feat (as if that wasn't impressive enough), is that three of those came against three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. 

The Rockets rank third in offensive efficiency and fifth in defensive efficiency, in addition to the league's fourth-highest scoring attack.

The point guard play has been nonexistent, because Houston's point guard, Fred VanVleet, is out for the season with a torn ACL. Amen Thompson has been Houston’s do-it-all player, which makes it unsurprising that the Rockets moved him to point guard to fill VanVleet's void.

However, Thompson has had a bit of a steep learning curve, from a positional standpoint. He's averaging 17.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 48 percent from the field, 80.8 percent from the foul line and nearly two stocks.

His best usage is as an off-ball cutter and slasher, however him being the primary on-ball guard has taken away from that.

The sum of all parts is a good team. One of the better teams in the league on most nights. 

In fact, Polymarket listed the Rockets as third-most likely to win the championship, at 7 percent, behind the Oklahoma City Thunder (45 percent) and Denver Nuggets (10 percent).

Ironically, Houston is 0-3 against those teams this season.

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