Round Table: OKC Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies Round 1 Predictions

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies are squaring off in the NBA Playoffs. This first round matchup will be an interesting one loaded with as much star power as you could hope for from a No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup.

The staff at Thunder on SI has put together a round table to predict the series.

Round 1 Predictions: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Rylan Stiles, Beat Writer

Prediction: Thunder in Five.

The Oklahoma City Thunder dominated this regular season series between these two sides, but each game features at least one key piece missing from each team. Though, the results expect to be the same in the postseason.

It is hard to beat a playoff team four times in a row, especially going on the road to a high energy arena like the Fedex Forum. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are good enough to band together for an impressive win at some point this series.

Ultimately, the Thunder are too well coached, too talent-rich and too proven to fall in the opening round and the best Memphis can hope for is shaving off a game.

X-Factor: Scotty Pippen Jr.

Ethan Baca, Staff Writer

Prediction: Thunder in five.

In the last five seasons, all eight teams that won 16 or more regular season games than their playoff opponent advanced to the next round in six or fewer games.

The Thunder racked up 20 more than the Grizzlies and shredded them in all four head-to-head matchups. Without rookie standout Jaylen Wells, Memphis has no real answer to slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – a sharp contrast to Oklahoma City’s never-ending defensive personnel.

X-Factor: Chet Holmgren

This season, Memphis averaged 56.0 paint points per game (No. 2 in NBA), while Oklahoma City gave up 42.5 paint points per game (No. 1 in NBA).

Holmgren contested 12.0 rim attempts and saved 4.4 rim points per 100 possessions, taking a defensive leap despite missing three straight months with a right hip fracture. He must provide consistent rebounding – whether paired with Isaiah Hartenstein or not – against a Grizzlies team that grabs 33.0% of their misses (No. 3 in NBA).

Ivan White, Staff Writer

Prediction: Thunder in Four.

While the Grizzlies do have some star power in Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane, the Thunder have plenty of versatile defenders to throw at anyone on the Grizzlies. Memphis also averages the third-most turnovers in the league, which will play right into the Thunder’s hands after finishing with the best turnover differential in NBA history.

X-Factor: Grizzlies Size.

Although the Thunder should win easily, how they battle against a frontcourt of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey could say a lot about how the Thunder will look against big teams in the second round and beyond. Whether the Thunder go small or use the doubl e-big lineup to match up against the Grizzlies will also be an interesting storyline throughout the series.

Chase Gemes, Staff Writer

Prediction: Thunder in Six.

The Grizzlies are an experienced playoff team that isn't going to be an easy exit, but the Thunder is more than equipped to take them down. Plenty of defensive weapons are going to be thrown at Ja Morant to limit his production, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be set for a strong series The possibilities for Oklahoma City are endless — it can roll out big or small lineups that will counter what Memphis does.

The Grizzlies do have the talent to extend the series to six games, but it shouldn’t result in a series win. The Thunder swept the season series, and despite Morant or Jaren Jackson Jr. missing three of the four matchups, it likely wouldn’t have changed the outcome.

X-factor: Jalen Williams

We know Gilgeous-Alexander is likely to get his share of the Oklahoma City offense, but Williams’ ability to perform as a second option will be crucial in this series. Memphis carries a tough defensive unit behind Jackson, so the first-time All-Star will have to figure out ways to be consistent in his scoring production.

This series will have plenty of developing storylines to follow. Make sure you get back to Thunder on SI often as we have you covered for the Thunder playoff run.