Spread & Over/Under Predictions: Charlotte Hornets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

The Charlotte Hornets (7-23) are back home on Saturday, this time hosting Shai Gilegous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder (24-5).

Charlotte comes into the matchup in a tailspin. Losers of 14 of their last 15 games by an average margin of defeat of 9.4 points, the playoff aspirations of the early season have quickly gone out the window.

On the other side, the Thunder are perhaps the best team in basketball. Not only has the team lost only five times the entire season, but they have also won their last nine games overall. As clear title contenders this season, derailing such momentum is sure to be a tough task for the Hornets.

Here are my picks for tonight's game. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Star ratings:

1 Star - Not very confident

2 Star - A little confident

3 Star - Fairly confident

4 Star - Very confident

5 Star - Should be a lock to happen

Spread pick: Thunder -12.5

3-star play on the Thunder (-12.5): When an unstoppable force meets an extremely moveable object, you have only one choice. Even with multiple strong players out for this game, the Thunder are arguably the last team anyone wants to play right now. 

The Hornets turn the ball over at the eighth-highest rate in the league, while the Thunder lead the league in steals. The Hornets commit personal fouls at the fifth-highest rate in the league, while no team shoots better than the Thunder’s 81.2% from the free-throw line. The Hornets score their points on three-pointers at the third-highest rate in the league at 41.5%, while the Thunder still shoot a better percentage from deep.

These types of comparison could continue for quite a while, but the point is that Oklahoma City is simply a better team in too many areas to be counted against, especially while Charlotte is at rock bottom. 

Often a double-digit line gives some pause purely because of how hard it is to win in the NBA. In this situation however, it simply drops the confidence rating from five stars to three.

Over/Under: 218.5 

3-star play on the under: Both teams have seen the under hit in five of their last seven games, though the Thunder have hit the over in two straight games.

Oklahoma City’s league-best 103.3 defensive rating feels like a big anchor towards the under in this one. Charlotte simply does not have the offense to consistently break such a suffocating defense, especially if the three-point shots are not falling. 

Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, and Lugentz Dort, all plus defenders, are set to miss the game for the Thunder with injury which should theoretically provide an opening for the Hornets offense. With that said, a team that has failed to capitalize on the vulnerabilities of much weaker teams recently should not be counted on to hold up their end of the deal here. 

If the Thunder were healthier there would be a greater risk of them dragging this matchup to the over all on their own. As things stand though, this is about as solid of a pick as you can get in such a lopsided matchup.

My picks this season:

ATS: 11-7 (61.1%)

O/U: 9-9  (50.0%)

Overall: 20-16 (55.5%)

Odds Disclaimer

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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