The bench guard question: Ja’Kobe Walter

Coming into this season, there was no doubt about what the starting lineup would be, there was no doubt about how Sandro Mamukelashvili would be used, and there was no doubt that the second unit would need a point guard, Jamal Shead, to handle the ball.

Two big questions remained, I think, and they were:

1. How much would Collin Murray-Boyles, the forward, play on this very forward-y team?
2. Who will ascend to the #1 off-ball bench guard between Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, Ja’Kobe Walter, and perhaps even… Jamison Battle?

The first question has been answered, mostly, but the second? Well, it still hangs in the balance, even if I wish it didn’t.

Also, we need to acknowledge what is expected of this role, because it’s far different than it was last year. For those who thought that Brandon Ingram’s arrival would severely hamper Scottie Barnes’ and RJ Barrett’s ability to get shots up, or touches, that’s not been the case, the shots have mostly been usurped from the low-volume bench guards, turning them into even lower volume bench guards. To be far too simplistic about things, the quartet combined for roughly 120 touches per game last season and roughly 34 shots a game. This season those numbers are roughly 54 touches and 13 shots per game.

Who does this hurt the most? Probably Dick, whose potential and value is far more reliant on his overall offensive output and skills than it is just low touch, low volume shooting. It’s a pretty beneficial role change for the other three, though.

So, what has been happening? This is part 2 of 4 (the first was Battle). Let’s talk Walter.

The Raptors 19th overall pick from 2024 had a really nice finish to his rookie season after having to navigate injuries and depth chart climbing in the first half. Walter had one strong skill in his rookie season — and it almost qualifies as a micro skill, but we’re expecting development so that’s fine — his on-ball defense when a screen wasn’t involved. When it came to picking up full court or defending in isolation, Walter was in the running for best on the roster once Davion Mitchell was traded away.

So, with the Raptors being a team that likes to play with extended pressure in the halfcourt, and is one of the teams leading the NBA in how high they pick up the ball handler on average, that would make Walter not only good at something, but good at something that fits exceptionally well in the Raptors scheme. Multiply this with the fact that the Raptors are a team that is looking intently at a 3&D guard as the missing link in a handful of their lineups? That makes it seem like the red carpet would be rolled out for Walter, not only as an immediate contributor, but as a player who can develop while doing so.

What’s the catch, then? Well, Walter isn’t fulfilling the 3 aspect of 3&D and he’s not able to provide much of anything else offensively – at least not now, and not very often in his rookie season. On a Raptors bench that wins a lot of minutes, Walter has not. He’s shooting 43-percent at the rim and 27-percent on his catch-and-shoot triples. Even with his shot diet being comprised of a lot of easy shots, he’s still struggling immensely. This isn’t new either. Gradey Dick got a lot of attention, and rightfully so, for his struggles as a finisher last season. He shot 50-percent at the rim. Last year, Walter shot 46-percent.

Walter is 21 years old and has a lot of basketball ahead of him to improve current skills and develop completely new ones. What’s happening right now though, is that Walter’s relative lack of any productive offensive skill is making him a sore spot on the offensive side of the floor. The Raptors are feeling that in spades so far this season. Walter has not been able to help the Raptors gain it all back on defense, despite being about as good as last year on that side of the floor. Some of this is also just, matter of factly, beyond Walter’s control. Lineup success is cannon fodder early on in the season, but it’s also driven by the best player on the floor more often than not.

It’s early and numbers have plenty of time to improve or normalize — at both the team and the individual level — and Walter is still getting minutes in Coach Darko’s rotation, but the start of this season has made me feel emboldened in my preseason expectation of Walter’s role. Specifically that he might be the player who eventually finds himself at the back end of the log jam, unless unexpected developments occurred.

Again, not to say that Walter’s development is a dead end, just that it isn’t coming along quickly enough to leapfrog the others this season. Although, if I were wrong about this, I’d be overjoyed because that would mean the Raptors would have a plus defender who can shoot it stepping into their lineup. It’s a long season, things are still in play.

We’ll see how it all shakes out.