The Kel'el Ware Paradox for the Miami Heat

COLLEGE

Kel’el Ware transferred from the University of Oregon after one season. The primary concerns were his motor and a perceived lack of enthusiasm in his play. He landed at Oregon as a sophomore under Mike Woodson, who was able to get the most out of Ware’s offensive skill set. Ware is a lob threat all over the floor, whether on the weak side or in the pick-and-roll. His elite hands and wingspan allowed him to catch and finish with relative ease. He shot 61.2% from two-point range and displayed excellent touch on his jump hook around the basket.

Defensively, his pick-and-roll coverage was often out of position or late. At times, he lost focus in man-to-man defense, allowing smaller players to shoot over the top of him. In isolation and space, he was a liability, struggling to read and react to ball movement or on-ball drives. There are too many instances on his Indiana tape where he allows himself to be boxed out by both bigger and smaller players. His out-of-area rebounding was nonexistent. Another thing that jumped out on film was that he didn’t run the floor hard.

NBA

The NBA Combine showed Ware was one of the most gifted athletes in the draft class. He tied for third among centers in the standing vertical jump, ranked second in lane agility, second in the shuttle run, and first in the three-quarter-court sprint. That makes him getting beat down the floor even more perplexing.

Fast-forward to his NBA career, and Ware’s numbers alongside Bam Adebayo are not encouraging. When they share the floor, the Heat are a net -7.4. When Ware plays without Bam, he is still a net -4.4. When Bam is on the floor without Ware, the Heat are a net +6.0. In the analytics age, it’s clear as day: Ware puts up numbers, but he lacks impact.

He will have stretches where he looks like the best center in the NBA. From November 12 through December 3, he averaged a double-double: 14.4 points per game, 12.4 rebounds, 58.1% from the field, and 56.5% from three. This is the tantalizing talent that keeps fans wanting more.

Over the last 10 games, Ware has averaged 8.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 44.9% shooting from the field, and 25% from three all while still playing 20+ minutes per game. His playing time didn’t change; his attitude and effort did. The analytics show the Miami Heat are better without Ware in the starting lineup.

This is the paradox of Kel’el Ware. The box score screams future star. The film and the analytics tell a different story. Until effort and consistency become non-negotiable, Ware will remain a tease rather than a pillar. Ware’s talent is undeniable. His influence on winning basketball is not.

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